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For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse structure. The wave picture is almost identical to EUR/USD, since the only "culprit" remains the dollar. Demand for it is declining across the market in the medium term, so many instruments are showing nearly the same dynamics. At present, wave 4 is presumably complete. If this is correct, the instrument will continue rising within impulse wave 5. Wave 4 could take on a five-wave form, but this is not the most likely scenario.
It should be remembered that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies, and not only in trade. From time to time, positive news emerges from the U.S., but the market constantly has in mind the overall uncertainty in the economy, Trump's contradictory decisions and statements, and the hostile, protectionist stance of the White House. Global tensions persist, and the U.S. economy continues to face problems.
The GBP/USD rate rose by 40 basis points on Monday after a pullback from Friday's high. Recall that on Friday, the market was once again disappointed by U.S. economic data, which dispelled doubts about the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy in September. At the moment, the probability of a rate cut, according to CME FedWatch, stands at 90%—the same as before the release of payrolls and unemployment data. The probability of a 50-basis-point cut has also barely changed at 67%. Market participants do not believe in three rounds of easing at the remaining three meetings—just 7.2% probability.
However, two rounds of easing, which Jerome Powell and the entire FOMC have been talking about since the start of the year, are also bad news for the U.S. currency. Two cuts or three—this no longer matters, because the Bank of England has likely paused its easing cycle due to high inflation, while the U.S. economy faces serious challenges, economic indicators are deteriorating, and the market now worries about uncontrolled rate cuts in 2026, when Powell will leave his post.
Most importantly, the wave pattern is so clear and simple at the moment that I can only expect continued GBP/USD growth. Very often, the market shows wave structures that are so complicated they add no value to forecasting, but now everything looks almost perfect. Wave 2 of 5 took on a three-wave form, and the failed attempt to break through the 127.2% Fibonacci level caused a sharp rebound from the lows. Thus, nearly all factors and types of analysis continue to point to buyers' advantage.
The GBP/USD wave picture remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive section of the trend. Under Donald Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals, which could seriously affect the wave picture, but for now the working scenario remains intact. The targets of the bullish section are now around 1.4017. At the moment, I assume the formation of corrective wave 4 is complete. Wave 2 of 5 may also be complete or nearing completion. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.
Key principles of my analysis:
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