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The NZD/USD pair is struggling to extend its recent two-day rally that set a new monthly high. Sellers are now appearing near the psychological level of 0.6000, but the decline remains limited as traders await the key decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Fed is expected to announce at least a 25-basis-point rate cut. Market focus is on updated economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, which should provide guidance on the future rate path. These signals will have a direct impact on the short-term dynamics of the U.S. dollar and may set a new impulse for the NZD/USD pair.
Ahead of this important event, position adjustments are taking place, leading to a moderate recovery of the dollar from its lowest levels since early July.
At the same time, investor caution continues to support the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, putting pressure on the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar. However, significant dollar strengthening is unlikely, given the growing expectations of more active Fed easing, which overall supports the NZD/USD pair and limits potential losses.
Going forward, market attention will shift to the release of New Zealand's Q2 GDP data, which is expected to show a 0.3% contraction following 0.8% growth in Q1. These figures may reinforce expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and determine the near-term direction of NZD/USD. Nonetheless, current fundamentals require caution from the bears.
From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, prices are trading above the 100-day SMA, and the 9-day EMA is above the 14-day EMA. All this confirms a positive outlook for NZD/USD. The nearest resistance is seen at 0.5990, just below the round level of 0.6000. Immediate support lies at the 100-day SMA around 0.5960, and if prices fall below this level, the next support will be at 0.5940.
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