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The downgrade of France's credit rating by S&P Global Ratings came as a bolt from the blue for EUR/USD. Bulls believed the political drama had ended, but this event brought the euro back down to earth. Two of the three largest agencies have now stripped France of its double-A credit rating. Moody's is expected to release its verdict on October 24. As a result, some hedge funds with strict investment criteria are selling French bonds, causing the yield spread with their German counterparts to widen.
The main indicator of risk in Europe has begun to widen again. Investors realized they had mistaken hope for reality. The fact that Sebastien Lecornu's government survived a no-confidence vote means little. The prime minister now faces a tough battle over the budget. It's far from certain that he'll be able to reduce the deficit to below 5% of GDP.
Despite EUR/USD pulling back from local highs, CIBC remains optimistic on the major currency pair. The bank notes that speculative long positions built up between mid-February and April preceded a breakout above $1.14. That level now acts as key support. Net euro longs are still far from the levels seen in 2020 and 2023, signaling room for growth. The shakeout of cautious hedge funds and asset managers during corrections creates excellent opportunities to buy EUR/USD at lower prices.
The key drivers remain divergences in monetary policy and economic growth. Donald Trump's tariffs are expected to slow the U.S. economy, while fiscal stimulus from Friedrich Merz will accelerate GDP growth in Germany and across Europe. According to Goldman Sachs, the Fed is projected to cut the federal funds rate four more times—twice in 2025 and twice in 2026. Meanwhile, the ECB has completed its cycle of policy easing.
Indeed, the medium- and long-term outlook for EUR/USD appears bullish, but trading the TACO strategy ("Trump Always Caves Off") keeps buyers on edge. Trump's conciliatory tone, his confidence that the meeting with Xi Jinping will take place, along with upcoming U.S.–China negotiations, continue to support the U.S. dollar.
Trump has called the current high tariffs on China unsustainable. This has led to a shift from "Sell America" trades to TACO positioning. Stock indices increased, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. Additionally, disappointing eurozone business activity data and accelerating U.S. inflation could further support the greenback.
Technically, on the daily chart of EUR/USD, bears are trying to capitalize on a pin bar with a long upper shadow. The first attempt failed, but sellers remain active. A drop below the local low at 1.6450 would be a bearish signal to sell. It makes sense to consider buying again from 1.1675 or higher.
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