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The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively weakly on Wednesday, at least until the FOMC meeting, the results of which and the market reaction will not be discussed in this article. The outcomes will be summarized tomorrow, once the market's passions have settled. For this week, only one significant event can be highlighted. On Tuesday, the JOLTs report on job openings was released, prompting the first more noticeable movement. The US dollar strengthened slightly as the number of job openings exceeded forecasts. However, it's worth recalling that the JOLTs report has never been a key indicator for the US labor market.
Key reports will be published next week, and these could awaken the market. Although there are doubts about this. At the moment, it is still unclear whether the correction on the daily timeframe has ended. The euro remains within its sideways channel, thus limiting the potential for the British pound to decline. We already believe that the pound has weakened too much in the second half of 2025. From its yearly high, the British currency has lost around 45%, while the euro has depreciated only by 23%. Yes, the UK has had its share of "wonderful" reports and fundamentals, while the Bank of England, unlike the European Central Bank, continues to ease monetary policy. Next week, it may cut the key rate for the fourth time this year. Therefore, a more substantial decline in the pound seems justified. Yet at the same time, this decline occurs within an upward trend, whose renewal we are all waiting for.
We continue to consider the key level for the pound to be the Senkou Span B line of the Ichimoku indicator on the daily timeframe. This line is positioned at 1.3364, and it was at this level that the last wave of growth stalled. Thus, the strength and importance of this line have already been confirmed. If the price settles above it, the trend will change to bullish according to the Ichimoku indicator, which is what we anticipate.
In our view, the market has ignored a significant number of factors indicating a decline in the US dollar over recent months. Still, it has responded triply to factors indicating a decline for the pound. This week, Andrew Bailey gave a speech, but the Governor of the BoE did not consider it necessary to enlighten the market on what decision would be made next week or what it would depend on. Hence, there remains very little information coming into the market. As we mentioned earlier, the JOLTs and ADP reports are interesting, but they are overshadowed by the FOMC meeting and the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rates, and consumer price index reports.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 53 pips, which is considered "low" for this currency pair. Therefore, on December 11, we expect movement within the range of 1.3278-1.3384. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downwards, but only due to the technical correction on higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold territory six times over the past months and has formed several bullish divergences, constantly warning of a potential resumption of the upward trend. Last week, the indicator "visited" the overbought area, and yesterday it formed another bullish divergence.
The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume its upward trend in 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect the US currency to appreciate. Long positions with targets at 1.3428 and 1.3489 remain relevant for the near term while the price is above the moving average. If the price is positioned below the moving average line, small shorts can be considered with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3184 on technical grounds. Occasionally, the US currency shows corrections (globally), but for a trend-based strengthening, it needs signs of the end of the trade war or other global positive factors.
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