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Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.3374 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. The rise occurred, and the test at 1.3374 was completed, but suitable entry points did not form there. In the afternoon, a false breakout around 1.3395 provided an excellent entry point to sell the pound, resulting in a more than 40-pip decline in the pair.
Despite weak data from the US Empire State Manufacturing Index and Christopher Waller's dovish tone, the British pound did not show strong gains against the dollar. Expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England this week limit the upward potential of the GBP/USD pair. A lot of reports are scheduled for release this morning. The UK unemployment rate and changes in average earnings could lead to a sharp spike in volatility for the GBP/USD pair, just like the data for the services sector business activity index and the PMI for the UK's manufacturing sector. In the event of weak data and further correction of the pair, I expect the first signs of buyers around the support level of 1.3356, formed as a result of yesterday's activity. Only after a false breakout there will it be a good opportunity to open long positions, targeting further growth towards resistance at 1.3395. A breakout and a retest above this range will increase the chances of GBP/USD strengthening, leading to the stop-loss orders of sellers being taken out and a suitable entry point for long positions, with a potential exit at 1.3434. The farthest target will be the 1.3468 area, where I plan to take profits. In the event of a decline in GBP/USD and a lack of buying activity at 1.3356, pressure on the pair will intensify, driving it towards the next support level at 1.3322. Only if there is a false breakout will there be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD on a rebound from the low of 1.3287, targeting a 30-35-pip intraday correction.
Sellers of the pound emerged at the end of the day, keeping the market within a narrow sideways channel. A breakout will determine the pair's further direction. In the event of a rise in GBP/USD, bears need to act around the nearest resistance level of 1.3395. Only a false breakout there will provide grounds for selling GBP/USD, targeting a decline to the support level of 1.3356, where the moving averages align with the bulls. A breakout and a retest from below this range after weak PMI data will deliver a more significant blow to buyers' positions, leading to stop-loss orders being taken out and opening the path to 1.3322. The farthest target will be the 1.3287 area, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD rises and bears remain inactive at 1.3395, buyers will regain momentum for the bullish trend, potentially leading to a surge toward 1.3434. I plan to open short positions there only after a false breakout. In the absence of a downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3468, expecting only a 30-35-pip intraday correction.
Due to the US government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders (COT) data is not being published. As soon as the current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest available data is only from November 18.
In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), there was an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. Pressure on the dollar remains—especially after the US Federal Reserve lowered rates again. However, demand for the pound is not as strong due to potential changes in the Bank of England's policy in the near future, which could also lead to a reduction in borrowing costs. The short-term future dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate will be influenced by new fundamental statistics. The last COT report indicated that non-commercial long positions increased by 766 to 53,189, while non-commercial short positions decreased by 981 to 132,446. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 282.
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