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Last week, macroeconomic data on UK GDP, the trade balance, and industrial production for November were published, and almost all of them came in better than expected.
The trade deficit narrowed significantly, with the goods deficit increasing more than offset by positive dynamics in the services sector. Monthly GDP growth in November was 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in October, while industrial production rose sharply. This was a big surprise: instead of the forecasted 0.4% decline, production grew by 2.3% y/y; the NIESR forecast for December assumes continued GDP growth, albeit modest.
Until recently, forecasts assumed that UK growth in 2026 would be lower than in 2025. After Q3 GDP growth of 1.3% y/y, which is not much, a 2026 growth forecast of about 0.9% y/y is not particularly strong to support high demand for the pound. But there are factors that can substantially support a bullish trend for the pound, the main one being inflation and the Bank of England's related policy.
Inflation in the UK remains very high, noticeably higher than in the eurozone, but from April—when the base effect disappears—it should fall to around 2% or even lower. The BoE should respond to falling inflation by cutting rates, but even with such a sharp slowdown, forecasts envisage only two rate cuts this year, in March and June, so the rate would fall to 3.25% despite lower inflation. The economy appears to have adapted to a high rate level, and it is quite possible that GDP growth will exceed forecasts while yields remain high. If realised, such a scenario would be extremely favourable for the pound, and current forecasts lean toward this development.
Next week, new data will be released: on Tuesday, January 20, the labour market report; on Wednesday, the December inflation report; and on Friday, retail sales and January PMIs. All forecasts are positive, and if confirmed, the pound will have a great opportunity to strengthen its position in the FX market.
The net short position on the pound was reduced again over the reporting week, this time by 0.5 billion to -2.1 billion. Despite speculative positioning clearly favouring the pound over the past eight weeks, the implied price has lost momentum for further gains.
In the previous review, we expected the pound to resume rising after a short correction, but even positive industrial production and GDP data did not help. At present, the direction is unclear; for now, we proceed on the assumption that no clear reasons for a pound decline have emerged, and therefore, the most likely scenario is continued consolidation while the market looks for a breakout direction. The pound has held above the technical level of 1.3353, which is a positive sign; we see good chances of a return to the recent high of 1.3566, but for more pronounced growth, additional justification is needed.
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