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Today, gold is accelerating its decline, slipping below the round $5,000 level and maintaining a bearish bias. The US dollar is showing moderate gains amid optimism over a Senate deal to fund the federal government through the end of the fiscal year, which reduces short-term political uncertainty and encourages gold bulls to take profits.
However, potential risks to the Federal Reserve's independence, along with expectations of interest rate cuts in the US, may limit a significant strengthening of the US dollar and provide some support for gold. In addition, tariff threats from US President Donald Trump and ongoing geopolitical turbulence could slow the decline of the yellow metal. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a strong continuation of selling before confirming that gold has reached its peak.
Democrats and the White House have agreed on temporary funding for the Department of Homeland Security, as lawmakers rush to approve a spending package by Friday to prevent a partial US government shutdown. This news gave the US dollar a slight boost, triggering new gold selling on Friday. US President Donald Trump on Thursday noted his reluctance to use military force against Iran, boosting investor confidence, although markets remain on alert due to his threat of 50% tariffs on Canadian aircraft until US Gulfstream planes receive certification in Canada.
Trump once again criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Truth Social, calling for sharp rate cuts, but the Federal Reserve withstood unprecedented political pressure and kept rates unchanged on Wednesday, citing a balanced approach. Trump has promised to name Powell's successor today, Friday, with Kevin Warsh increasingly likely. However, concerns over the autonomy of monetary authorities from direct White House interference should restrain a US dollar rally.
On the geopolitical front, the US is increasing its deployment of warships and fighter jets in the Middle East, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed readiness for decisive action on Trump's orders, raising escalation risks and boosting demand for gold.
Russia has again invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Moscow for peace talks, but a deal remains distant due to fundamental disagreements, including Kyiv's refusal to cede the entire Donbas to end the nearly four-year conflict.
Today, for better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data in the second half of the North American session, as well as comments from key FOMC members and the announcement of the new Fed Chair, which may also determine demand for the US dollar and set the trajectory for the precious metal.
From a technical perspective, on the 4-hour chart the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into negative territory, undermining bullish strength. The MACD histogram is fading and remains below the signal line, indicating that bulls have lost intraday momentum.
However, on the daily chart the oscillators remain positive, suggesting that bulls are not ready to give up yet.
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