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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its essentially sideways movement on Friday. Volatility has once again decreased, and over the last four days, the price has remained between 1.1775 and the area of 1.1830-1.1837. Thus, we have a 60-pip sideways channel. Getting out of this channel is task number one for the new week. Given that reports on Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and inflation will be published in the U.S., there should be no issues in accomplishing this task.
At the same time, traders need to consolidate above the Senkou Span B line. Let's remind that the recent downward movement is essentially a correction, which is clearly visible on the 4-hour timeframe. The pair has corrected enough, and it is time to restore the trend. However, to do this, the price needs to overcome the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which are the only orientation points for the current downward trend.
As mentioned, the macroeconomic reports from Germany and the U.S. had no impact on trader sentiment on Friday. The same picture will likely be observed next week. The market is poised to react to U.S. labor market and inflation reports, as well as news related to Donald Trump. Therefore, all attention will be on the American reports and new decisions/statements from the U.S. president.
There were no trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, so there was no basis to enter the market.
The latest COT report is dated February 3. The illustration on the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish." Since Trump took office as president of the United States for a second time, only the dollar has been falling. We cannot say with 100% certainty that the decline of the American currency will continue, but current developments around the world suggest this is a possibility.
We still see no fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency, while there are enough factors that would weaken the American currency. The global downward trend is still in place, but what does it matter now, where the price has moved over the past 18 years? A new upward trend has been forming over the last three years, breaking the global downward trendline. Thus, the path north is open.
The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the preservation of the "bullish" trend. Over the past reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 11,900, while the number of shorts decreased by 19,300. Consequently, the net position grew by another 31,200 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, despite breaking the trend line and a correction. The pair has officially left the sideways channel between 1.1400 and 1.1830, where it spent seven months. Therefore, we still expect growth in the European currency in 2026. For technical recovery of the upward trend, the price needs to consolidate above the Ichimoku indicator lines.
On February 9, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, 1.2051, 1.2095, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1876) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1821). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.
On Monday, there are no important reports scheduled in the Eurozone, only a speech by European Central Bank Chair Christine Lagarde. We believe that three days after the meeting, Lagarde will not provide the markets with anything new. The U.S. events calendar is empty. Therefore, we are likely to experience another "boring Monday."
On Monday, traders can trade from the area of 1.1821-1.1837. New long positions will be relevant if the price consolidates above this area with targets of 1.1876 and 1.1904-1.1922. Short positions can be considered upon a new bounce from the area with a target of 1.1750-1.1775.
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