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The EUR/USD pair traded sideways throughout Tuesday, with trader activity close to zero. By the end of the day, the pair even rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1889, which allows for expectations of continued growth within the ongoing bullish trend. A consolidation below the 1.1889 level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to some decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1829.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, and the new upward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bullish. The bulls have taken a short pause within a large-scale advance that would have been impossible without Donald Trump. Trump has pushed tensions in the world and within the United States to the limit, and markets continue to respond by fleeing from the risky U.S. currency with uncertain economic prospects.
On Tuesday, the news background in both the U.S. and the EU failed to attract traders' attention. The retail sales report showed no change in December, although traders had expected a slight increase. The weekly ADP report showed an increase of 6,500 jobs, which on a monthly basis corresponds to about +25,000 — the figure reported in January's ADP report last week. Thus, another labor market report showed weak data, but for traders the Nonfarm Payrolls report, to be released today along with the unemployment rate, is of particular importance. At the moment, bullish traders are holding their profitable positions and maintaining the trend. Only very strong labor market data would force them to retreat. The 1.1889 level is providing support to the euro. In my view, the probability of weak payroll and unemployment figures is higher than that of strong ones. Therefore, I expect another decline in the dollar and a rise in the EUR/USD pair today.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1770, reversed in favor of the European currency, and consolidated above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1890. Thus, the upward movement may continue in the near term up to the 0.0% corrective level at 1.2083. A consolidation below 1.1890 would allow the bears to go on the offensive for some time, targeting 1.1829 and 1.1770. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 11,965 long positions and closed 19,262 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 302,000, while short positions total 138,000 — more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players reduced short positions and increased long positions. Then the "shutdown" began, and now we are seeing the same pattern: professional traders continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they are creating numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the U.S., such as deterioration in the labor market and a decline in global reputation. Traders also fear the potential loss of Fed independence in 2026 and Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On February 11, the economic calendar contains three entries, two of which are considered highly important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday could be strong in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair today is possible if it closes below the 1.1889 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1829. Buying opportunities were available after closing above 1.1829 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1889 and 1.1963. The first target has been reached. Long positions may be kept open.
Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1577–1.2083 on the 4-hour chart.
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