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The European Union is finally starting to gain a sense of self-worth and is moving towards independence, primarily from the U.S. Let's recall that last year, Donald Trump imposed "friendly" tariffs against countries in the European Union and, under pressure from trade tariffs, practically forced Brussels to sign a trade agreement worth hundreds of billions of dollars, which the U.S. would receive in exchange for not increasing import tariffs. Since then, relations between the EU and the U.S. have resembled those of two sworn enemies forced to be in the same boat, who must smile at each other and pretend that everything is fine.
Trump's leverage did not end with trade tariffs. For example, the U.S. president has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from NATO, arguing that Europe does not spend enough to strengthen the North Atlantic Alliance and is simply using the U.S. for its protection against external enemies. Naturally, the "NATO factor" was also actively used by Trump during negotiations with Brussels regarding the trade agreement. In other words, the leader of the White House holds two serious trump cards in the form of a large market and NATO, which he uses freely.
However, by early 2026, Brussels had finally realized that negotiating with Trump was futile. After one complaint, another would follow, and so on indefinitely. Strangely enough, I—not a European politician—was saying all of last year that Trump sought a pretext to impose new tariffs, sanctions, and duties, after which he issued ultimatums that his opponent must accept under the pressure of American trump cards. In January 2026, Trump seriously discussed annexing Greenland, using the noble pretext that "Europe cannot ensure the safety of Greenland from China and Russia, and for America, Greenland is a matter of national security." When national security is at stake, it gives Trump the right to seize vast territory by military means. At least that's how Trump sees it. Only through the efforts of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte did an agreement with the U.S. president concerning Greenland materialize, the essence of which remains unknown. Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing to significantly reduce its dependence on NATO and the American market.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to build an upward phase of the trend. The policies of Trump and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may reach up to 25,000. At this moment, I believe that the instrument remains within the framework of a global wave 5, so I expect prices to rise in the first half of 2026. However, in the near future, the instrument may construct another downward wave within the correction. I consider it sensible to search for areas and levels for new purchases with targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to the 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci.
The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take a much more extended form. I believe that in the near future, we may observe the construction of a corrective set of waves, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, in the coming weeks, I recommend looking for opportunities for new purchases. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has a good chance of rising to $1.45-1.50. Trump himself welcomes the decline of the dollar, and the Fed has the opportunity to lower rates again at the next meeting.
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