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Stock indices posted solid gains last Friday. The S&P 500 climbed by about 0.69%, the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 0.90%, and the Dow rose by roughly 0.47%.
However, futures are trading lower this morning as renewed uncertainty around US trade policy dents sentiment toward American assets and raises the risk of higher global volatility. US index futures are down roughly 0.5%–0.9%. The yen, the Swiss franc, and the euro are leading gains against the dollar after the greenback's rally last week. Bitcoin has slid by nearly 5% to settle below $65,000 while gold and silver have ticked higher.
Investors are growing cautious amid the threat of stepped-up US protectionism, which is starting to weigh on risk appetite. The drop in futures suggests that global markets are already pricing in potential negative consequences from renewed trade tensions — slower growth, weaker corporate profits, and disruption to global supply chains — and participants are rethinking allocations accordingly.
Recall that late last week, hours after the Supreme Court overturned his sweeping reciprocal-tariff plan, US President Donald Trump announced a new 10% global tariff and said he would use other authorities to maintain a tough trade stance. On Saturday, he said he would raise that levy to 15%, stoking fresh economic turbulence.
Asian equities rose by around 1% on Monday, led by tech names, amid hopes the court decision could ultimately benefit big regional economies such as China and India, which were hit hardest by prior tariffs.
Still, investors are awaiting details of Trump's new trade plan and weighing its likely impact — not only on US growth and Fed policy but on the global economy and corporate profits. Against that backdrop, trade uncertainty is again a headwind for US assets. A softer dollar this morning may continue alongside further weakness in US equity futures.
As for the S&P 500 technical analysis, buyers need to overcome the immediate resistance level of $6,871. Breaking above that level would confirm further upside and open the way to $6,883. Surpassing $6,896 would further strengthen the bulls' case. On the downside, buyers should defend around $6,854. A break below that level would likely bring the instrument back down to $6,837 and could open the path toward $6,819.
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