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The GBP/USD pair continues to decline within a broader bullish trend. Last week, the price did not produce a second reaction to Imbalance 14, which could have saved the latest bullish impulse. Notably, Imbalance 14 has still not been invalidated, although I no longer consider it relevant. Instead, a bearish Imbalance 16 has formed, which is now the main pattern for traders. This is a bearish pattern within a bullish trend.
In my view, the rise of the U.S. dollar could end at any moment, as over the past two weeks bullish traders have repeatedly had opportunities to launch a justified advance. Why they have not done so remains unclear. Even Donald Trump's victory over the Supreme Court of the United States at the end of last week cannot, in my opinion, be considered a positive factor for the dollar. Nevertheless, bears continue to hold the initiative.
In my opinion, the only reason for the dollar's strength in recent weeks may be Donald Trump's readiness to launch an invasion of Iran. Few now doubt that it would be a full-scale invasion rather than a limited military operation. Previously, the focus was on eliminating nuclear facilities (it appears last year's operation was unsuccessful); now the discussion concerns regime change and the complete destruction of what is described as a "criminal regime." Such a large-scale operation would require more time than, for example, seizing Maduro in Venezuela. U.S. warships and aircraft carriers continue to arrive in the Persian Gulf, so within the next two weeks Iran could face the most intense escalation in decades. Against this backdrop, the market may seek safe havens for capital, and for many investors the dollar still remains a familiar and relatively safe currency.
The bullish trend in the pound remains intact in any case. Therefore, as long as it holds (above the 1.3012 level), I would focus more on bullish signals. The pound's decline could be substantial, but it could also end at any moment. The only currently valid pattern, Imbalance 16, has not yet produced any signal. Thus, there are no grounds for new trades at this time.
On Monday, there was no significant news background for either the pound or the dollar. Market movements during the day were relatively weak, especially considering last week's news flow. However, that news was effectively ignored, as we also saw no strong market movements last Friday.
In the United States, the overall news background suggests that, in the long term, further dollar weakness is more likely. The situation in the U.S. remains complex. U.S. labor market data has been disappointing more often than encouraging. Three of the last four FOMC meetings have resulted in dovish decisions. Trump's military actions, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Iran, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, another government shutdown, and the scandal involving U.S. elites in the Epstein case all contribute to the broader picture of political and structural crisis in the country. In my opinion, bulls have every reason to continue their advance throughout 2026.
For a bearish trend to develop, the dollar would need a strong and consistent positive news backdrop, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as it would keep the trade balance in deficit. Therefore, I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. Too many risk factors continue to weigh on the dollar. Short positions could be considered from bearish patterns, but personally, I would not recommend this to traders. I view the recent decline of the pair as somewhat accidental.
United States – ADP Employment Change (weekly) (13:00–15:00 UTC).
On February 24, the economic calendar contains only one relatively minor event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be minimal or absent.
For the pound, the broader picture remains bullish, although the short-term outlook has turned bearish. There are currently no valid bullish patterns. There is only the bearish imbalance, to which the price must first return and show a reaction before traders can consider potential short positions.
It is worth noting that the pound's decline over the past few weeks has been strong enough to temporarily shift the bullish picture toward bearish, largely due to unfavorable circumstances. If Donald Trump had not repeatedly threatened to attack Iran and deployed warships to the Persian Gulf, such a sharp decline in the pound would likely not have occurred. Therefore, I believe the decline could end just as unexpectedly as it began. I do not consider the overall trend to have turned bearish.
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