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The test of the price at 1.1784 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.1805.
Yesterday, the U.S. currency went down again. This was caused by statements from U.S. officials regarding Donald Trump's upcoming signing of a directive to raise international tariffs to 15%. Experts warn that such protectionist moves could provoke retaliatory measures from the U.S. trading partners.
The first half of today will be marked by a speech from the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding global economic growth prospects, every word from Lagarde will be closely analyzed. Investors and analysts will be looking for signals from the ECB on future monetary policy, including possible interest rate changes, though this is unlikely. Following her speech, two important reports are expected, which will provide insight into the current state of credit activity and money supply in the Eurozone. The report on private sector lending will show how actively banks are lending to households and businesses. Healthy credit growth is an indicator of economic activity and confidence, while any slowdown may signal upcoming difficulties. Changes in the M3 money supply aggregate, in turn, are a broader measure of liquidity in the economy. M3 includes cash, demand deposits, savings deposits, short-term deposits, money market fund shares, and some other more liquid assets.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1827 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1855. At 1.1855, I intend to exit the market and immediately sell euros back on the pullback, aiming for a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. Expecting growth for the euro today is only feasible after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1810 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth towards opposing levels of 1.1827 and 1.1855.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1810 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1784, at which point I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20-25-pip move from the level). Pressure on the pair might return today if the data are poor. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1827 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline towards opposing levels at 1.1810 and 1.1784.
Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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