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The escalation of conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has heightened concerns about long-term supply disruptions from the Middle East, especially following the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Additional pressure on supply came from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which threatened to destroy any vessels attempting to pass through this strategic waterway. This situation remains a key driver supporting oil prices.
In parallel with these events, US President Donald Trump stated that the US Navy is ready to protect commercial vessels in the region to prevent energy supply shortages. However, no one is prepared to take risks by crossing the Strait.
Oil prices are also supported by the US dollar, which is consolidating below its highest level since November 2025, as established on Tuesday. This has a positive impact on dollar-denominated commodities, including oil. However, the prospects for a significant weakening of the dollar remain limited, as investors are lowering their forecasts for more aggressive Federal Reserve policy easing.
Market participants have reduced expectations of three Fed interest rate cuts in 2026, assuming that rising oil prices could once again fuel inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the fundamental conditions remain favorable and indicate a continued likelihood of rising oil prices.
From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are in the overbought zone, confirming either a correction or consolidation. However, since the oscillators are positive after the correction, the path of least resistance is upward.
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