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The EUR/USD pair declined during the first two days of the week and has now been moving sideways for two days. We have already seen the market's initial reaction to the events in the Middle East. The bullish picture for EUR/USD has not been completely broken, but it has suffered serious disruptions. The news background proved stronger than the technical picture. Therefore, under current conditions, traders need to be cautious, as the pair's decline was driven exclusively by news from the Middle East.
It is impossible to know what news will follow, and no one can predict it. The news flow may vary widely. For now, I only see a negative trend, as the United States is preparing for a prolonged war and is developing military action scenarios for the next 3–4 months. Countries of the European Union are ready to join an "anti-Iran" coalition. Iran itself continues to launch strikes in almost all directions.
This week, as expected, a bearish imbalance 11 was formed. However, the trend remains bullish, and Tuesday ended with liquidity being taken from the swing of January 19. Let me remind you that liquidity grabbing is not a pattern from which positions should be opened. It is only a warning of a possible change in market sentiment. Thus, traders face a choice: either wait for a bearish signal within the bullish trend, wait for a break of the bullish trend and then trade bearish patterns, or wait for bullish patterns.
The technical picture still signals bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains, although the bullish scenario is currently postponed for an indefinite period. To expect renewed growth of the European currency, new bullish patterns are required.
The news background on Thursday was extremely weak, so trader activity was low. The only interesting report—retail sales in the European Union—showed a 0.1% decline in January, although traders had expected a higher figure. However, the European economy has not been delivering strong data for a long time. The situation could worsen further if the conflict in Iran cannot be resolved in the near future. In that case, the European Union could face a full-scale energy crisis and another surge in inflation. If Europe decides not only to provide bases for further attacks on Iran by its allies but also to participate directly in the war, the economy could decline very quickly.
In recent months, bulls have had many reasons to attack, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. In the near term, the U.S. currency may strengthen due to investors fleeing risk, but this factor is unlikely to support it for long. Meanwhile, the dovish outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Trump's trade war with the rest of the world, weakness in the U.S. labor market, two government shutdowns, U.S. military aggression, the criminal prosecution of Powell, slowing GDP growth, and other unfavorable factors for the U.S. remain in place despite the conflict in Iran.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary market support, but it is far from certain that this situation will last long. The blue line indicates the price level below which the bullish trend can be considered finished. Bears would need to push the price down about 140 points to reach it, and even if they succeed, I would still question the sustainability of a bearish trend. In my opinion, the pair is showing a strong decline only because of geopolitical factors. When this factor fades, what will drive the bears? Bearish patterns may form this week, and then it will be easier to analyze the local picture and build forecasts.
Economic calendar for the U.S. and the European Union
On March 6, the economic calendar contains at least three important entries. This time, the economy may prove more important than geopolitics. The news background will still influence market sentiment on Friday, especially in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD forecast and trader advice
In my view, the pair remains in the stage of forming a bullish trend. The news background shifted sharply last weekend, but the trend itself remains intact. Therefore, traders need new patterns and signals in the near future to build short-term forecasts. If bearish signals appear (which is more likely), it is important to remember that the trend remains bullish and that geopolitical factors usually do not have a long-term impact. If bullish signals appear (which would be much more preferable), traders will have an opportunity to open new buy positions that align with the prevailing trend.
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