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Yesterday, stock indices closed lower again. The S&P 500 fell by 0.56%, while the Nasdaq 100 slid by 0.26%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.61%.
Today, in the final trading day of the week, equities edged higher, supported by a softer dollar and easing oil prices. Gold and silver continued to climb. Futures on European stock indices jumped by nearly 1%, and US index futures staged a decent rebound. Asian markets recouped earlier losses and rose by about 0.1%, led by gains in Chinese tech names.
Oil prices eased only modestly despite active discussion in Washington about a package of measures to curb the speculative rise in energy costs. The global energy market remains under close scrutiny: the Middle East escalation tied to the Iran war has raised fears of supply disruptions. The US administration is weighing a range of options — each with risks and benefits — from releasing crude from strategic reserves to intensifying diplomatic efforts and urging major producers to boost output. Given the complexity of the situation, finding an optimal solution to stabilize prices is far from straightforward.
Meanwhile, gas researchers at Goldman Sachs say a scenario in which Brent tops $100/bbl is possible if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for several weeks.
According to Shinkin Asset Management, the market is showing remarkable resilience. Concerns about Iran remain, but investors seem to believe the conflict will not be long-running, the company estimates.
Despite sentiment stabilizing on Friday, the Asian equity complex is set for its worst week since March 2020, down about 6.3% since the outbreak of hostilities with Iran. Funds are pulling money out of the region at the fastest pace in four years. Against that backdrop, the dollar has reclaimed its safe-haven mantle and is on track for its best week since November 2024.
Today brings a key US employment report expected to show a slowdown in hiring after strong January gains. The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged. A stronger jobs print would be negative for rate-cut hopes, given rising inflation expectations on higher energy prices. A softer payrolls number would lift the odds of easing.
As for the S&P 500 technical analysis, buyers' immediate task is to overcome the resistance level of $6,854. This would help the index gain renewed upside momentum and could open the way to $6,871. Holding control above $6,882 would further bolster the bullish case. On the downside, buyers should defend around $6,837. A break below that level would quickly bring the instrument back down to $6,819 and could open the path to $6,801.
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