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The GBP/USD currency pair continues its downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, though at the end of last week, the British pound began to show signs of growth. As we recall, on Friday, disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment reports were published, so any growth in the pair seems justified under the current circumstances. In the last month, the British pound has faced significant challenges, as a series of important UK reports showed weak figures and a full-scale war in the Middle East shocked global markets, forcing investors to flee riskier assets and currencies. Without this situation, the British pound would have long resumed its upward trend.
Despite the war in Iran, which may last several months or longer, we do not see compelling reasons for the dollar to rise. It is important to remember that this time, the war is not merely a spectacle for America, which could profit from arms sales or achieve geopolitical goals without firing a shot. This time, the U.S. is an active participant in the war, and war is an expensive endeavor. According to some estimates, one day of war in Iran costs the American budget between $100 million and $1 billion. All this money must come from somewhere, as the country's budget remains in deficit, the trade balance is still negative, and public debt continues to grow.
Consequently, many traders are already worried that the Fed will have to start printing money, which could trigger a new wave of inflation. At the same time, the economy, under the pressure of war, may continue to slow its growth, leading the Fed to lower interest rates to support the economy, even amid rising inflation. The labor market situation is similarly concerning. Despite three consecutive interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025, the number of jobs decreased by almost 100,000 in February 2026. We see no positive indicators for the dollar coming from geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
This week, the market may at best focus on the most important economic events. There will not be many such events. In the UK, GDP and industrial production reports will be released; in the US, there will be inflation data, the second estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter, orders for durable goods, the PCE index, the JOLTs report on job openings, and the Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan. We would narrow this list of important events down to the inflation report.
However, even this report might be ignored. Recall that a month ago, the market paid almost no attention to a slowdown in inflation to 2.4%, which significantly increased the likelihood of new Fed easing. This time, inflation is expected to accelerate slightly to 2.5% in February. Formally, an increase in inflation would mean that the Fed would have to maintain its pause in easing, but more likely, geopolitics will once again drive the narrative rather than macroeconomics.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 124 pips. For the GBP/USD pair, this value is considered "high." Thus, on Monday, March 9, we expect movement within a range limited by levels 1.3289 and 1.3537. The upper linear regression channel points upward, indicating the upward trend remains intact. The CCI indicator has once again entered the oversold territory, signaling a potential end to the correction.
The GBP/USD currency pair has been in correction for a whole month, but its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the U.S. currency to grow in 2026. Therefore, long positions with a target of 1.3916 and above remain relevant as long as the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small short positions can be considered with a target of 1.3289 based on technical (correction) grounds. In recent weeks, almost all news and events have turned against the British pound, causing a lengthy correction.
Regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
The moving average line (settings: 20.0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently proceed.
Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility levels (red lines) – the probable price channel in which the pair will trade over the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators.
The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.
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