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The price test at 1.3351 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying pounds. As a result, the pair rose by 25 pips.
U.S. President Donald Trump's statements about the impending resolution of the conflict with Iran had a noticeable impact on global financial markets. Following a significant sell-off in Asia, riskier assets saw a revival. The British pound rose sharply, reflecting a decline in concerns about potential global economic shocks. Such changes indicate a reallocation of capital towards more profitable, albeit riskier, instruments.
Today is expected to be relatively quiet for UK economic data releases, which should favor the continued upward trend of the British pound against the U.S. dollar. Technical analysis also supports the potential for further pound strengthening. Yesterday's rally allowed the currency to break through several important resistance levels, opening the way for new highs.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy pounds when the price reaches around 1.3436 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3474 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3474, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Pound growth can be anticipated as the trend continues. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy pounds today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3417 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards the opposite levels of 1.3436 and 1.3474 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell pounds today after breaking the 1.3417 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3385 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20-25 pips from the level. Pound sellers may reveal themselves at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell pounds today if the price tests 1.3436 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3417 and 1.3385 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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