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The EUR/USD currency pair failed to develop a northern impulse on Wednesday, as optimism and hopes in the markets quickly gave way to a recognition of the harsh reality. Donald Trump is to blame. To briefly recap, over the weekend, Trump mentioned that he does not rule out the possibility of a ground operation in Iran, but stated that very compelling reasons must exist for that. What could the markets read into these words? Objectives are not being achieved. Otherwise, why conduct a ground operation involving a large number of soldiers and equipment, part of which will likely be destroyed? The dollar started the week with renewed gains.
However, by Monday, Trump stated that the war in Iran was nearing its end. Shortly thereafter, he announced that U.S. naval forces would accompany tankers in the Persian Gulf, allowing oil from the region to flow back into global markets. Oil prices immediately dropped from $119 to $85, leading to a decline in the dollar. Naturally, as the conflict is nearly over and the oil shock has been resolved. At least that's what Trump said!
But on Wednesday, it became known that Iran had commenced mining the Persian Gulf and promised that no vessel would pass through the Strait of Hormuz without its consent. So, who is telling the truth? Whom should we listen to, and whom not? Thus, the markets continue to experience significant volatility. Every day, reports come out that contradict previous statements and news. Trump has already promised to eliminate the new Supreme Ayatollah of Iran, the son of Ali Khamenei, if he does not make concessions to the U.S. However, experts immediately stated that Khamenei Jr. has no intention of making any concessions. Neither does the Iranian people.
Political scientists and military experts unanimously assert that a victory for Iran would simply be preserving its statehood, politics, and religion. In simpler terms, it does not matter how many targets Israel and the U.S. destroy in the region; Tehran will rebuild everything, restore nuclear facilities, continue to create ballistic missiles, and continue to harbor animosity toward the U.S. Capturing Iran would, to put it mildly, not happen without immense losses among personnel and a significant amount of ships, planes, and various equipment. If Trump proceeds with a ground operation, the U.S. national debt will soar even further. Or inflation will rise if the Fed resorts to quantitative easing to finance Trump's geopolitical ambitions.
At the same time, Iran may show the world how to counter the American president's geopolitical aspirations. A good example for the European Union, which seems likely to simply hand over Greenland to the U.S. for eternal use if pressed hard enough. If Trump is not resisted, the whole world will dance to the tune of the U.S. However, the dollar is clearly benefiting from Trump's international policies, as most investors and capitalists still use it as a "reserve currency." Thus, until there is a real de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, we may see further dollar growth, regardless of macroeconomic data in the United States.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days, as of March 12, is 88 pips and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1484 and 1.1660 on Thursday. The upper linear regression channel has flattened out, indicating a trend reversal. The CCI indicator has again entered the oversold zone, signaling a potential resumption of the upward trend. A new "bullish" divergence has also formed.
S1 – 1.1475
R1 – 1.1597
R2 – 1.1719
R3 – 1.1841
The EUR/USD pair continues its correction within the upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop remains extremely negative for the dollar, which remains of great significance to the market. The pair has spent seven months in a sideways channel, and it is likely time to resume the global trend of 2025. The dollar lacks a fundamental basis for long-term growth. We are currently witnessing yet another global correction.
With the price located below the moving average, one can consider small short positions targeting 1.1484 based on technical grounds and due to the complex situation in the Middle East. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1963 and 1.2085.
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