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Markets are trying not to overreact: despite sharp rhetoric, including Trump's claim he would act without NATO, investors took it as a signal that the regional conflict is unlikely to turn into a global war. The broad S&P 500 index is rising for a second day and may press higher in step with the global MSCI.
Support comes from stabilizing oil, expectations of a dovish Fed tone, strong tech results (NVIDIA, Micron, and others), as well as the view that the US is relatively better positioned to withstand an oil shock and has structural AI advantages. Banks and strategists, Barclays among them, are advising buy-the-dip strategies, although the index still bumps against its 200-day moving average. Follow the link for more details.
Investors expect dovish Fed rhetoric: three FOMC members appear ready to respond to Trump's calls and back easing, and derivatives have moved away from earlier hawkish scenarios. If the Committee signals an intent to ease monetary policy, the US dollar could weaken, with the S&P 500 climbing. However, a protracted Middle East conflict raises the risk of stagflation and a recession, and for that reason, asset manager optimism, per Bank of America, has fallen to a six-month low.
Bank of America managers have trimmed US GDP growth forecasts, are building cash positions, and identify geopolitics and inflation as the principal risks — ahead of worries about an AI bubble. Technically, the S&P 500 has bounced off a local low, but the formation of a pin bar with a long upper wick points to bull weakness. A break below the 6,710 low would be a trigger for opening short positions. Follow the link for more details.
Markets suffered sharp losses yesterday: the S&P 500 -1.36%, the Nasdaq 100 -1.46%, the Dow Jones -1.63%. At the Fed meeting, officials signaled that they still expect one rate cut this year. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that cuts require clear progress on disinflation — without it, there will be no easing. That pushed traders to dial back expectations: markets now anticipate only about 15 basis points of easing for the year, which is well below a full 25 basis point move.
Technically, the immediate S&P 500 task is to overcome the resistance level of 6,627. This would open the way to 6,638 and then help the index consolidate above 6,651. On the downside, it is crucial to defend the 6,616 mark. A break below that level would likely drag the index to 6,603 and then 6,590. Follow the link for more details.
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