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On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) significantly decreased amid rising US Treasury yields. Market pressure stemmed from investors' concerns about rising energy prices and strong US labor market data, prompting market participants to reassess the likelihood of a Fed rate cut occurring only in 2027.
From a technical perspective, the overall global picture for gold still remains bullish; however, the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at the level of $4590 serves as key support. A breach of this level, along with a break of the round figure at $4500, could open the path for deeper declines toward $4200.
The selling momentum is increasing, which is confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), raising the risk of further declines. If the XAU/USD pair consolidates below the 100-day SMA, the most likely near-term scenario will be a retest of the $4500 level. Following its breach, the next target for the decline could be the February 2 low at $4402, and then the area around $4200. In a broader perspective, market attention will shift to the 200-day moving average.
At the same time, if gold manages to overcome the level of $4650, the nearest resistance will be the low of February 17, which now acts as a barrier at $4841.
Oscillators remain negative, supporting the bearish outlook.
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