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What's good and what's bad? Bitcoin has both positive and negative news. The crypto has outperformed gold and other financial assets during the Middle East crisis. That fuels debate over whether it is a safe?haven asset or not. Yet, favorable changes in US legislation have not produced the boom that crypto fans expected. Hence, BTC/USD is oscillating in a relatively narrow trading range of $64,000–$74,000.
Investors cannot settle on Bitcoin's status. Is it a risky asset, as suggested by a high correlation with US stock indices — especially big tech? Or is it actually a reliable asset? During the Middle East conflict, it has outpaced traditional havens such as gold, US Treasuries, the yen, and the Swiss franc. Those assets have fallen significantly while the token continues to test dynamic support in the form of moving averages.
Bitcoin and moving-average dynamics
ETF flows offer no clear answer. Over the three days to 20 March, there were outflows of $305.8 million from Bitcoin-focused ETFs. Nevertheless, inflows were recorded earlier in the five days, and ETF reserves rose by $95 million over the week.
You won't find the truth in other indicators either. For example, CoinGlass's crypto market sentiment index has been in the fear zone for 25 of the last 30 trading days. At the same time, Bitcoin should theoretically suffer from rising oil, refined-product, and energy prices, since mining requires electricity. Higher energy costs force miners to sell accrued reserves to cover expenses. Increased supply leads to lower BTC/USD.
Oil and refined-product dynamics
In this regard, Goldman Sachs's forecast that the conflict in the Middle East will stretch from the current three weeks to six weeks, with Hormuz reopening only within a month thereafter, is bearish for Bitcoin. US stock indices are undergoing a correction, and a deterioration in global risk appetite is putting pressure on BTC/USD.
Donald Trump's 48?hour ultimatum to Iran is more escalation than de?escalation of geopolitical tension. Few believe Tehran will comply with the White House demand to reopen access to the Strait of Hormuz.
Technically, on the daily chart, BTC/USD is fighting for fair value around $70,000, where the moving averages also sit. A break below the local low at $67,300 would be a sell signal and increase the risk of the formation of a broadening wedge. It would make sense to return to buying only if the cryptocurrency secures a close above the important $72,000 level.
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