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How to distinguish truth from lies? Iran believes that the US always lies. Just a couple of weeks ago, Donald Trump talked about negotiations that did not take place. Prior to that, Washington was engaging in dialogue with Tehran about the nuclear program, but in fact, it began bombing. Scott Bessent claims that lifting sanctions on Iran will free up 140 million barrels, but Iran insists that it has no unsold oil at sea. Nevertheless, markets have grown accustomed to believing the occupant of the White House, which causes the EUR/USD to ride the American rollercoaster.
As soon as the euro fell below $1.15 and Brent rose above $114 per barrel, Trump stepped in. He declared that he was lifting his 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran, as "constructive negotiations" between Iran and the US were taking place. Oil immediately plummeted 14%, and EUR/USD spiked above 1.16.
Unfortunately, the Iranian press asserts that there are no negotiations with the Americans. All statements from the US president are aimed at lowering oil prices. Yes, there are initiatives for a ceasefire from Middle Eastern countries, but Tehran did not start this war. They should address Washington.
Optimists believe that dialogue will begin soon. Pessimists are convinced that Trump simply wanted to reduce oil prices. However, it is not he who controls the Strait of Hormuz; it is Iran. Therefore, such statements by the occupant of the White House, without confirmation from Tehran, are inappropriate.
Brent has returned above $100 per barrel and is awaiting news. The US dollar moves alongside it. A de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, as Trump mentioned, would be a significant blow to the greenback. In this case, demand for safe-haven assets would sharply decrease. Additionally, the United States would lose its advantage of being a net exporter of energy goods. As a result, speculators, who have increased their net long positions in the dollar for the first time since December, would have to retreat.
In my opinion, the occupant of the White House is stating wishes as reality. He clearly does not like the rise of Brent and WTI. Moreover, the war with Iran has proven to be neither as quick nor as victorious as Trump expected. Iran is prepared for a prolonged defense, which is clearly not part of the US plans. Now is the time to retreat—if Tehran allows it.
For the euro, de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East would be a strong argument for a swift attack. The "bulls" are eagerly awaiting when this will happen! In such a scenario, support for the main currency pair would also come from rising US stock indices.
Technically, on the daily chart for EUR/USD, there was a double play of the inside bar and a double test of fair value at 1.161. Both events initially misfired on the "bears" and then twice on the "bulls." Meanwhile, a drop of the euro below $1.154 will serve as a reason for selling, while a rise above $1.161 will be a signal for buying.
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