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The EUR/USD currency pair plunged again on Thursday. In essence, the upward correction lasted only a week, during which the euro failed to show any significant growth that could spark speculation about a possible end to the downward trend. The macroeconomic and fundamental calendar was nearly empty on Thursday. Clearly, the German consumer confidence index did not provoke a new decline in the euro. Thus, the drop in the pair was once again exclusively tied to geopolitical factors. Which ones, exactly?
Overall, the market is currently responding to Donald Trump's promises to end the war soon and to the insights indicating a negotiation process between Washington and Tehran. Oil prices are rising again, and the dollar is gaining strength. What does this indicate? There is no trust in Trump's words, and the market prefers to listen to Iranian leaders, who have not been caught making blatantly false statements or promises. Iran has stated clearly: there are currently no negotiations with the US, and it is unlikely that any will be possible in the near future. The Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked, and Iran will respond with a strike to every attack from its opponents.
At the same time, the "peaceful" Trump has sent over a thousand paratroopers and infantry to the Persian Gulf region. If America is passionately eager to conclude a truce, or if Iran is pleading with Washington for a deal, why send more troops to the region? In our opinion, this is a case where one must trust actions rather than words. With all its actions, Washington demonstrates that it is preparing a new attack on Iran, possibly a ground operation. Hence, we would expect a new escalation of military conflict in the Middle East soon. Given that the dollar is rising again, the market anticipates a similar outcome.
It is also important to understand that there are many high-ranking officials in both the US and Iran. A single official may believe that negotiations are possible in the near future, or someone may have information unavailable to others. Therefore, each new message from Tehran or Washington represents merely the opinion of individual officials rather than the official position of the state. Thus, until official information is received about negotiations, deals, the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, or a ceasefire, we would not expect a strong growth in the European currency. Unfortunately, the market continues to track only geopolitical events. More precisely, it continues to observe the situation in the Middle East. New American troops are being sent to the region, so the market justifiably expects a new round of conflict. Technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors currently hold no significance for traders. Otherwise, the US dollar would not be rising; instead, it would be plunging into another abyss.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days, as of March 27, is 84 pips and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1454 and 1.1622 on Friday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of a potential end to the downward trend.
S1 – 1.1475
S2 – 1.1353
S3 – 1.1230
R1 – 1.1597
R2 – 1.1719
R3 – 1.1841
The EUR/USD pair continues to correct and has a chance of recovery. The global fundamental background remains extremely negative for the dollar. However, for over a month, the market has focused solely on geopolitics, making all other factors practically irrelevant. If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1475 and 1.1353. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets of 1.1963 and 1.2085, but for such a movement, the geopolitical background must improve even slightly.
Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it means the trend is strong at the moment;
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) represent the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next 24 hours based on current volatility metrics;
The CCI indicator—its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is imminent.
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