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After a recent surge in volatility driven by concerns about potential US interest rate hikes, the price of gold is showing signs of stabilization. The period of turbulence, during which investors actively reacted to signals from the Federal Reserve, has given way to a more measured sentiment. Against this backdrop, buyers, seeing current levels as an attractive entry point, have begun to actively support prices. As a result, the previous decline has been partially compensated by a new influx of demand, which serves as a stabilizing factor.
The market, in turn, is in a state of anticipation. The key factor influencing the further dynamics of the precious metal's value remains the uncertainty regarding the duration and scale of the conflict in the Middle East. Geopolitical instability traditionally stimulates demand for gold as a safe haven that can preserve value in times of heightened risk; however, in the current realities, this perception is not holding.
The pause in gold price movement reflects the duality of the current situation. On one hand, concerns about US monetary policy create pressure on commodities, diminishing their attractiveness as investment vehicles. On the other hand, ongoing geopolitical risks favor gold, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset. The balance between these factors defines the current stabilization, but any serious future movements will likely depend on the resolution of ongoing uncertainties—both regarding Fed policy and the developments in the Middle Eastern conflict.
The price of gold has recovered from its initial decline and is currently holding around $4,500 per ounce, demonstrating resilience despite the ongoing rise in oil prices and declines in the stock market. This indicates that traders have taken advantage of lower prices caused by the war, as concerns over inflation grow and the prospects of lower interest rates diminish.
The entry of Iran-backed Houthis into the conflict over the past weekend has raised fears of escalation, as has the arrival of additional American troops in the region. While Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have met to find solutions to the situation, Iran has attacked aluminum plants in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. These events have heightened concerns about a protracted conflict that may force central banks to sell gold and raise interest rates to curb inflation.
As for the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,531. This will allow for targeting $4,591, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The farthest target will be around $4,647. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control of $4,481. If they succeed, breaking through this range will deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,432, with the prospect of reaching $4,372.
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