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The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure amid increased demand for U.S. government bonds against the backdrop of the Middle East crisis, where an escalation in the form of a U.S. ground operation against Iran may occur in the near future. How exactly this will unfold remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: rising oil prices will support demand for the U.S. dollar, along with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its monetary policy in the foreseeable future, with a risk of rate hikes by the end of the current year.
Against this background, a gradual strengthening of the U.S. dollar in the Forex market can be expected.
From a technical perspective, the pair has fallen below the 1.1500 level, which may lead to a local decline by the end of the current week.
Technical picture and trading idea:
Price is below the middle Bollinger Band line, below the 5-period SMA and the 14-period SMA. The RSI is below the 50% level and is gradually declining. The Stochastic indicator is above the oversold zone and is not providing clear signals.
A consolidation below the 1.1500 level may lead to a decline toward 1.1400 as early as this week. A potential entry point for selling could be around 1.1490.
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