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Yesterday, US stock indices finished the day higher: the S&P 500 added 0.72%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.16%, and the Dow Jones gained 0.48%. However, this morning the situation changed sharply: futures on the major indices slipped, and investors began moving out of risk assets. At the same time, demand for bonds as a safe-haven position rose noticeably. This happened against the backdrop of Trump's statements that the US would go ahead and even intensify military actions against Iran.
The market revised expectations for further Fed monetary policy: Treasury yields remained near previous levels after the last session, but today's escalation could quickly change the dynamics. On the commodity market, Brent crude jumped 6.6% to roughly $108 per barrel due to risks to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold, on the other hand, fell considerably — from about $4,800 to $4,550. More details via the link.
Against the backdrop of ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the US market is trading increasingly predictably: the S&P 500 tends to climb at the start of the week, slow down midweek, and then often sees selling on Thursday–Friday. The main reason is that investors do not want to hold positions over the weekend, when high-profile events can occur, and Trump regularly stokes the news flow with his statements.
Traders are also watching how quickly White House rhetoric changes: reports of escalation often appear after markets have closed. This time, the latest ultimatums to Iran were accompanied by threats to strike energy infrastructure in exchange for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran insists it is "open" for peace but not for the US. However, the index was also supported by positive macro data: growth in manufacturing activity, an increase in retail sales, and higher employment. More details via the link.
The evening address from Trump, instead of signaling de-escalation, sounded like a continuation of hardline rhetoric. The president said he expects fighting to continue for another 2–3 weeks, threatened Iran with "extremely severe" strikes, and urged allies to "find courage" to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Thursday began with a sharp reversal: Dow futures plunged 1.2% (more than 500 points), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively. The reaction spread to Asia (Nikkei 225 down 2.4%, Kospi down 3.4%). Brent crude rebounded and topped $106 per barrel, and WTI traded around $101. More details via the link.
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