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The euro, pound, and other risk assets continued to rise against the U.S. dollar, but this time the upward potential was more modest than the previous day.
Yes, the situation in the Middle East has stabilized somewhat; however, until the next round of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, scheduled for next week, discussing larger growth for risk assets will be problematic. The upcoming negotiations are expected to cover a wide range of issues, including Iran's nuclear program, regional security, and the Strait of Hormuz. Success in these discussions could be a turning point, opening the way to a more peaceful and stable future for the entire region.
Today promises to be eventful, especially in the Eurozone and the UK, with the release of key macroeconomic indicators and the European Central Bank's report. The focus will be on Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will provide insights into inflationary trends in the region. Particular interest lies in core prices that exclude volatile components, such as energy and food, as this will allow an assessment of underlying inflationary processes.
The ECB's report following the monetary policy meeting will provide a detailed analysis of the Eurozone's economic situation, risk assessments due to the situation in the Middle East, and justification for the decisions made. Special attention will be paid to any hints regarding possible changes in monetary policy direction, whether that be easing or tightening.
Regarding the pound, as I mentioned above, today is also expected to be quite informative. The focus will be on the change in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) for February. Alongside, figures for changes in industrial production will provide insight into the state of the manufacturing sector, as well as data on the trade balance of goods, revealing the picture of external trade operations. These indicators are critical for assessing the current state of the British economy and forecasting its further development. If the published figures come in worse than expected, it could exert significant pressure on the British pound.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it's advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' forecasts, the Momentum strategy would be most appropriate.
Buy on a breakout of 1.1820, which may lead to an increase in the euro to around 1.1835 and 1.1866;
Sell on a breakout of 1.1790, which may lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1760 and 1.1722;
Buy on a breakout of 1.3590, which may lead to an increase in the pound to around 1.3607 and 1.3632;
Sell on a breakout of 1.3555, which may lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3515 and 1.3480;
Buy on a breakout of 159.00, which may lead to an increase in the dollar to around 159.36 and 159.60;
Sell on a breakout of 158.85, which may lead to a decline in the dollar to around 158.57 and 158.28;
Look for short positions after a failed breakout beyond 1.1825 on a return below this level;
Look for long positions after a failed breakout beyond 1.1794 on a return to this level;
Look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 1.3595 on a return below this level;
Look for longs after a failed breakout beyond 1.3555 on a return to this level;
Look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 0.7211 on a return below this level;
Look for longs after a failed breakout beyond 0.7167 on a return to this level;
Look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 1.3738 on a return below this level;
Look for longs after a failed breakout beyond 1.3702 on a return to this level;
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