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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair is under pressure as the US dollar strengthens after recent weakness, and positive US economic indicators, combined with reduced optimism in the Eurozone, add to the pressure on the euro. However, the pair has not been able to continue its decline, as traders remain cautious amid uncertainty regarding potential peace negotiations between the US and Iran.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, is hovering between 98.38 and 98.41.
Previously published data indicated that March retail sales rose by 1.7% month-on-month, exceeding forecasts of 1.4% and accelerating growth compared to February (0.7%). The main driver of this growth was a sharp rise in gasoline prices, triggered by the escalation of conflicts with Iran.
Retail sales, which are included in GDP calculations, rose by 0.7%, and sales excluding vehicles increased by 1.9%, with both figures surpassing analysts' expectations. Labor market data also showed positive trends: the four-week average for employment changes from ADP rose to 54,800, up from 39,000 the previous month.
Overall, the latest reports confirm that the US economy remains resilient despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, which is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy course longer, especially considering inflation risks driven by rising oil prices.
Traders are also analyzing statements from Kevin Warsh, a candidate for the Fed Chair position, who called for a review of the inflation model and a "regime shift" in economic policy, criticizing the Fed for adhering too long to its forecasts.
However, the main focus remains on the situation in US-Iranian relations against the backdrop of the approaching ceasefire deadline on Wednesday. In an interview with CNBC, President Trump stated that he does not intend to extend the current truce, emphasizing that the US is in a "very strong negotiating position" and "prepared for military action" if peace talks fail, thereby increasing the risk of renewed tensions.
The future prospects of the second round of peace talks in Pakistan remain uncertain following the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, which has reduced optimism about the resumption of negotiations, as Iran has not yet confirmed its participation.
The table below presents the percentage change of the US dollar against major currencies on Tuesday. The most notable strengthening of the dollar is observed against the Japanese yen.
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