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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has dipped slightly, with prices currently below $94.00 per barrel. However, the decline is limited due to concerns regarding global oil supplies.
Donald Trump's decision to cancel the diplomatic visit to Islamabad by his close associates Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, despite the arrival of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Pakistan, underscores the ongoing tension in the region. The deadlock in negotiations, including issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz blockade, continues to keep prices elevated, preventing a deeper correction.
Navigation through this critically important route is significantly hindered by Iranian restrictions, compounded by U.S. naval oversight. Such factors sustain fears of potential supply disruptions. However, a moderate rise in the U.S. dollar limits further price growth for this commodity.
There are also concerns that the spike in energy prices driven by the war will renew inflationary pressures, prompting major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, to adopt a firmer stance. In fact, current market prices imply an over 80% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates in the current range at its next meeting, which continues to support the dollar.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop leans toward the bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for oil prices lies upward and any correction is likely to be bought, representing a better price for purchases. However, it would be prudent to wait for a breakout of the 20-day SMA, currently near the round level of $94.00, and for prices to consolidate above these levels before opening new buy positions. It is also worth noting that the oscillators are mixed, with the relative strength index neutral, indicating weakness among the bulls.
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