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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January of last year, but the wave structure now looks rather ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and focusing on the simplest and smallest wave structures in order to make a short-term forecast, which is sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and allow for multiple scenarios. The easiest approach is to trade using the standard "five-three" pattern.
In the chart above, I can identify a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extended third wave. If this is indeed the case, then this structure has already been completed, and a corrective wave sequence of at least three waves is currently forming. We have already seen three waves, so in the near future the market will likely form at least one more corrective wave. How events unfold next depends on geopolitics: either a more complex correction develops, or a new downward trend segment begins.
The EUR/USD pair fell by 30 basis points during Wednesday, and volatility remained very low. The market still shows no desire to engage actively and prefers to wait calmly for events to unfold. Let me remind you that the next 24 hours will be extremely important in terms of the economic outlook for the Eurozone, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The central banks of these regions will hold their third meetings of the year. Although the market does not expect any changes in monetary policy, important information may come from the central bank leaders, who traditionally summarize the meetings. Market participants will need to closely monitor any changes in tone compared to previous statements, as these will determine the short-term dynamics of EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
At the same time, I would note that I still do not expect strong market movements or high trading activity. Of course, Jerome Powell or Christine Lagarde could hint at future rate hikes, and there are reasons for this: the Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, and Brent crude oil has returned to $120 per barrel and is likely to continue rising. Therefore, global inflation is expected to accelerate. Today, Germany released its April inflation report, and its figures allow for cautious optimism. Consumer prices rose by only 2.9% year-over-year—many had expected a much sharper increase. Nevertheless, inflation is rising and moving away from central banks' target levels. Therefore, rate hikes are likely only a matter of time.
Based on this EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the short term it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave pattern appears largely complete and may become more complex and extended only if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East improves. Otherwise, a new downward wave sequence may begin from current levels. We have already seen a corrective wave; what happens next will depend on market confidence in a successful outcome of negotiations.
On the lower timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this does happen. I would remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on charts rather than strictly adhering to every single wave. Recent waves are difficult to interpret, so I rely more on higher timeframes in my analysis.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
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