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For the US dollar, the current week could be a failure or quite positive. All the most important events will once again be related to the US, and all critical reports will come from the US. Let's start with geopolitics. On Monday, it became known that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is heating up again. Iran launched two missile strikes on an American warship that was trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports from Iran, a warning signal was sent to the ship, which was ignored. After that, Tehran fired two missiles at the destroyer. At this point, it is unclear whether the ship was sunk, as Iran reported hitting the target, while Washington claimed the ship remained intact. Frankly, I tend to believe Tehran, but it is certainly better to believe Washington.
If Tehran has indeed sunk the American destroyer, this means that missile strikes on Iran are likely to resume in the near future. If the American ship is intact, there is hope for continuing negotiations, though they may be highly ineffective. In any case, this week we will see significant geopolitical news, and the market will react to at least some of it, as it did on Monday.
There will also be a considerable number of economic reports. On Tuesday, the ISM services sector activity index and the March JOLTs report on job openings will be released. I don't consider the JOLTs report to be significant, but it is still part of the labor market statistics package, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve. Let me remind you that the FOMC could vote for tightening monetary policy if the labor market recovers to previous levels. However, I wouldn't expect that to happen anytime soon, even if this week's data doesn't disappoint. The recovery of the US labor market will take a long time, just like the recovery of oil flows from the Middle East. At this point, it remains unclear if the US labor market is recovering at all.
On Wednesday, the ADP employment report will be released. However, this report is neither precise nor significant for the market. It is more of a supplementary indicator for Nonfarm Payrolls. And on Friday, we will see what all traders look forward to every month: the unemployment report and Nonfarm Payrolls. This time, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, while the payroll figure is expected to be 60,000. Of course, actual values will differ...
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward segment of the trend (bottom image) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may only take on a more complex, elongated form if the geopolitical background in the Middle East does not worsen this week. Otherwise, a new downward segment of the trend may begin from the current positions. We have seen the corrective wave, and I expect further increases in the instrument from current levels, targeting around the 19 figure.
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts, which may be completed soon. If this is indeed the case, we can expect a corrective wave set to form. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is an increase into the 37 figure. Everything else will depend on geopolitical factors.
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