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Today, Bitcoin reached a monthly high, surpassing $81,700, before retracing slightly. Ethereum reached $2,396 yesterday but has not returned to that level today.
Despite Bitcoin's recent price bounce, which attracted investor attention and sparked a wave of optimism, data from the analytics firm Santiment indicates a concerning trend: activity on the BTC network has fallen to a two-year low. This discordant signal, where the price is rising while actual network usage stagnates, has historically been bearish, foreshadowing potential valuation declines.
This activity metric, which includes the number of active addresses, transaction volume, and the number of new coins, serves as an indicator of the health and demand for the cryptocurrency. A decline in activity amid rising prices suggests the upward movement is likely driven by speculative activity in the futures market rather than by real user demand.
Thus, the current BTC bounce looks more speculative, as net demand in the spot market remains in negative territory. This means that the volume of Bitcoin purchases on exchanges where it is traded directly does not offset the volume of sales, weakening the fundamental support for the current rise.
As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continued development of a bullish market in the long term, which has not disappeared.
For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $81,500, with a target increase to $82,100. Around $82,100, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.
Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can be considered at the lower boundary of $81,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $81,500 and $82,100.
Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $81,100, with a target decline to $80,600. Around $80,600, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.
Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can be considered at the upper boundary of $81,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $81,100 and $80,500.
Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,373, with a target increase to $2,396. Around $2,396, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.
Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can be considered at the lower boundary of $2,358 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $2,373 and $2,396.
Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,358, with a target decline to $2,336. Around $2,336, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.
Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can be considered at the upper boundary of $2,373 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $2,358 and $2,336.
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