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On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) continued to recover steadily after rebounding from the $4500 low recorded at the beginning of the week, which marked its lowest level in more than a month. The metal has now posted gains for a third consecutive day. Positive momentum remains intact, allowing prices to climb toward the $4750 level, approaching the 100-day SMA.
Expectations of a possible peace agreement between the United States and Iran, together with softer hawkish sentiment regarding U.S. Federal Reserve policy, are prompting dollar bulls to adopt a more cautious stance and continue to support the precious metal. Nevertheless, market participants with a bullish outlook may prefer to remain cautious and wait for clearer signals regarding the prospects of a U.S.–Iran agreement before increasing long positions.
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump made optimistic remarks, stating that negotiations had progressed over the past 24 hours and that the likelihood of reaching an agreement with Iran remained high. In addition, Axios reported that the parties are in the final stage of negotiations. However, Iranian state media denied reports that a "comprehensive" agreement had already been reached. According to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), the conditions proposed by the United States include provisions previously rejected by Tehran.
At the same time, the BBC reported that Iran is considering a draft memorandum of understanding with the United States that would provide for the gradual restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of U.S. restrictions on Iranian ports. Moreover, Trump warned that failure to reach an agreement could lead to military action "at a significantly higher level of intensity than before."
Against this backdrop, investors are reassessing the likelihood of a deal, given the ongoing serious disagreements over Iran's nuclear program, which is acting as a factor limiting further gains in gold prices.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Wednesday's ADP report showed that U.S. private-sector employment increased by 109,000 jobs in April after a downwardly revised 61,000 increase in the previous month. The data exceeded forecasts and pointed to continued, though uneven, resilience in the labor market. In addition, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants are still pricing in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of the year. This supports the U.S. dollar, limiting further weakness and, consequently, restricting the upside potential for gold as a non-yielding asset.
In the near term, attention should focus on U.S. initial jobless claims data, as well as speeches from FOMC officials, which may set the tone for trading later in the day. However, the key event remains Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In addition, developments in the Middle East will continue to influence volatility levels and shape gold's future price trend.
From a technical perspective, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has moved into positive territory, indicating that bulls are gradually gaining the upper hand. They still need to break above the 100-day and 50-day SMAs to strengthen their position further. However, if prices fail to hold above the 20-day SMA, bears may regain control. It is also worth noting that the 200-day SMA continues to slope upward, confirming the broader long-term uptrend.
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