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Yesterday, equity indices finished slightly lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.38%, the Nasdaq 100 slipped by 0.13%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average corrected by 0.63%.
In the final trading day of the week, global equity markets declined, while oil prices resumed their climb. The trigger was a renewed escalation between the United States and Iran, which cast doubt on recent hopes for a swift ceasefire. The MSCI All Country World Index, a barometer of global equities, fell by 0.3% amid clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.39%, up two basis points on the week.
Reports indicate that US forces retaliated against Iranian attacks on destroyers, prompting investor concern about the conflict's trajectory. A similar episode earlier this week did not escalate into a major confrontation, however.
Despite a 1.1% drop in Asian indices from record levels, S&P 500 futures were up about 0.2% today, suggesting some resilience in bullish sentiment.
Brent crude rose by 1% to roughly $101 per barrel. Traders worry that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil transits, would sustain supply disruption risks. Still, oil is down more than 6% on the week, reflecting the initial optimism around peace talks.
In an interview yesterday, US President Donald Trump again threatened Iran with "harsher" strikes in the future if the republic does not sign an agreement, while characterizing current military actions as a "love tap" and saying the ceasefire remains "in effect."
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have reportedly lifted restrictions on the use of US military bases on their soil, potentially allowing Washington to resume "Project Freedom" — the operation to escort vessels through the strait.
Support for the broader market continues to come from expectations of substantial investment into artificial intelligence. Even amid heightened geopolitical risk, investors remain focused on AI, hoping that easing geopolitical tensions will prevent a sustained rise in energy prices.
Gold rose modestly to around $4,710 per ounce.
From a technical perspective on the S&P 500, the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,361. Doing so would confirm upside momentum and open the path to $7,381. Maintaining control above $7,404 would further strengthen bulls' position. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,339 area. A break below that level would quickly drive the index back to $7,319 and open the way toward $7,300.
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