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The EUR/USD pair continued its decline on Thursday, consolidating below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1682, and by Friday morning had already approached the next retracement level at 50.0% – 1.1630. A rebound from this level today would favor the euro and support some growth toward 1.1682. A consolidation below 1.1630 would allow for further decline toward the next Fibonacci level at 61.8% – 1.1578.
The wave structure on the hourly chart currently remains simple. The last completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few pips, while the last downward wave broke below the previous low. Thus, the trend has shifted to bearish. The temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, but now, five weeks later, it can be said that geopolitics is moving toward prolonging the conflict. As I warned, the bulls failed to build on their momentum, and the bears have once again taken the offensive.
On Thursday, the dollar continued receiving what could be called gifts from fate. More precisely, the main gift came on Monday, when it became clear that another round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington had reached a deadlock, and Donald Trump launched into harsh rhetoric against Iran. According to the American president, the United States never truly exited the conflict with Iran and would continue seeking to ensure the Middle Eastern country remains non-nuclear. The market interpreted this statement as a sign that the U.S. is prepared to launch new strikes against Iran, while hopes for a stable ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz can now be forgotten for the time being. The ceasefire could collapse at any moment, since if negotiations have failed, only one possible outcome remains.
In addition, the pound sterling dealt a "bearish" blow to the euro in both the literal and figurative sense. The United Kingdom has become mired in a new political crisis, with ministers resigning from the government one after another in protest against Keir Starmer's policies. The prime minister himself is also being urged to resign. As a result, it is hardly surprising that the pound is falling like a stone and dragging the euro down with it. This week, everything is playing in favor of the U.S. dollar and the bears.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair once again rebounded from the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1778, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and consolidated below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1706. Thus, the downward movement continues toward the corrective level at 76.4% – 1.1617. A rebound from this level would halt the euro's decline, while a breakout below it would stimulate further weakening toward 1.1474. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 383 long positions and 3,893 short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated, while over the past six weeks the situation has somewhat stabilized. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 217,000, while short positions amount to 185,000. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.
Overall, in the long term, major market participants continue to view the euro with considerable interest. Naturally, various global developments — of which there has been no shortage in recent years — continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war has merely been paused rather than ended. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor on economic data, but on developments in Iran.
Economic calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
The economic calendar for May 15 contains only one entry, which I would not describe as important — especially under current conditions. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday is therefore expected to remain weak.
EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:
I previously recommended selling the pair after a rebound from the 1.1786 level and after consolidation below 1.1745 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1666. The target was reached. New selling positions can be considered after a close below 1.1630, with targets at 1.1578 and 1.1514. Buy positions may be considered after a rebound from 1.1630, with targets at 1.1682 and 1.1745.
Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409–1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
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