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Last Friday, equity indices finished lower. The S&P 500 rose by 1.24%, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 1.54%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.07%.
Since the opening bell, futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have already lost more than 0.5%. European markets are expected to open lower as well. The main driver — as it has been in recent weeks — is the impasse around the Strait of Hormuz, oil above $111/bbl, and inflation that no longer looks transitory.
Thirty-year US Treasury yields jumped to a near three-year high. The picture in Japan is even more dramatic: 10-year yields surged by 10 basis points to levels last seen in 1996, and 30-year JGBs hit record highs since their 1999 debut. The sell-off has spread to emerging markets — Indonesia, India — underscoring that this is a global repricing of inflation risk rather than a local story.
Traders now see a Fed rate rise as inevitable. That marks a 180-degree reversal: back in February, the market priced in two interest rate cuts in 2026, but if the Fed does not tighten, investors will conclude that the central bank is falling behind the inflation curve and will demand a higher inflation premium for holding US assets.
Talks with Iran have stalled. According to the Mehr news agency, Washington offered no meaningful concessions while pressing for terms it could not achieve militarily. Concerns rose further after a drone attack on a nuclear power plant in the UAE was reported. US President Donald Trump warned, "Time is running out."
This week, markets will watch Nvidia's report — the last major test for the AI narrative that has been keeping the tech sector afloat despite macro worries. More than 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten expectations, but any disappointment from Nvidia could pull the whole tech sector down at a time when the market is already on edge.
Regarding commodities, Brent crude has shot above $111/bbl, and WTI is trading near $107. Gold continues to lose ground as the risk of higher rates weighs on the non-yielding metal.
Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,381. That would signal further upside and open the path to $7,404. Maintaining control above $7,427 would strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,355 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,339 and could open the way to $7,319.
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