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Gold (XAU/USD) is posting solid intraday gains during the early European session on Wednesday, approaching overnight highs and reaching the area around $4,540 over the past hour. The partial de-escalation of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has eased concerns about a broader regional confrontation, weakening demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and supporting precious metal prices. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran, together with inflation risks and expectations of further interest rate hikes, may limit downward pressure on the dollar, thereby restraining further gains in gold.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced on social media that Israel had agreed to withdraw forces that were preparing operations in Beirut and nearby areas under Hezbollah's control. In addition, through intermediaries, Trump established contact with the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah and received assurances that it would refrain from attacks against Israel. This limited de-escalation has reduced support for the US dollar's earlier gains. However, conflicting statements regarding the progress of US-Iran negotiations aimed at ending the three-month conflict continue to support demand for gold. Iran warned that it may suspend negotiations following new strikes and Israeli military activity in Lebanon. At the same time, Trump stated that dialogue remains ongoing and noted the possibility of reaching an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as early as next week.
Investors remain cautious and prefer to wait for clearer signals regarding progress in US-Iran negotiations. Meanwhile, expectations that higher energy prices could force major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance are limiting the upside potential for non-yielding gold.
Today, traders may prefer to wait for the release of the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data during the North American session, as it could provide short-term market direction. Nevertheless, the key event of the week remains the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could significantly influence the performance of the US dollar.
In addition, further developments in the Middle East could increase volatility across global financial markets and create new trading opportunities for gold. Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains mixed. According to the latest data, the US dollar continues to strengthen against major currencies, particularly against the Japanese yen.
From a technical perspective, gold remains within a descending parallel channel and is attempting to break above the 14-day EMA. However, bulls still face two additional obstacles before gaining control of the market: the 20-day and 50-day SMAs. As long as oscillators remain in negative territory, bullish momentum is likely to remain limited. At the same time, with prices continuing to trade above the 200-day SMA, it is still premature to discuss any significant long-term downside risks.
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