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Last Friday, several entry points were formed in the market. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart to understand what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1624 and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The breakout at 1.1624 occurred without a retest, so I did not get an entry point and ended up without any trades. In the second half of the day, a false breakout near 1.1645 created a point of entry to sell the euro, resulting in a decline of more than 100 pips.
The sharp increase in employment in the U.S. non-farm sector strengthened the dollar and led to declines in risk assets, including the European currency. All of this indicates ongoing inflation pressures, even as the economy continues to create new jobs. The higher inflation is, the greater the chances that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of this year.
Today, in the first half of the day, data on factory orders in Germany and the Sentix investor confidence indicator for the Eurozone will be released. Poor performance in these indicators will likely maintain pressure on the euro, leading to a decline towards the new support at 1.1506. Only the formation of a false breakout there will provide an entry point for long positions, targeting a recovery of the pair to 1.1534 by the end of today. A breakout and a retest of this range will serve as confirmation to buy euros, anticipating a stronger surge towards the resistance at 1.1560. The furthest target will be the high at 1.1579, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD declines and there is no buying activity at 1.1506, pressure on the euro will intensify, leading to a larger decline for the pair. In this case, sellers will try to reach the next interesting level at 1.1480. Only if a false breakout forms will there be a suitable condition for buying euros. I plan to open long positions immediately on a bounce from 1.1448, targeting a 30-35 pip corrective rise intraday.
Sellers made their presence felt on Friday and now fully control the market. If the pair rises today, I expect bears to first appear around the resistance level of 1.1534. A false breakout at this level will provide a good entry point for short positions, anticipating a further decline to the support level of 1.1506. A breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a retest from the bottom to the top, will facilitate a larger sell-off in euros, providing an additional opportunity to open short positions as prices move towards 1.1480. The furthest target will be the area of 1.1448, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD moves upward and there is no active bearish action around 1.1534, the euro may recover significantly. In that case, it would be best to hold off on short positions until the larger level of 1.1560. I will sell there only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a bounce from 1.1579, targeting a 30-35 pip downward correction.
In the COT (Commitment of Traders) report for May 26, both long and short positions decreased. Traders are still pricing in a potential increase in interest rates in the Eurozone, but they are doing so cautiously, as the situation in the Middle East is still in a critical phase, and nothing is resolved definitively. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 10,196 to 223,055, while short non-commercial positions fell by 6,009 to 193,629. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 7,237.
Moving Averages
Trading is occurring below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline for the pair.
Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of traditional daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).
Bollinger Bands
In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.1470 will act as support.
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