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Yesterday, a draft memorandum of understanding consisting of 14 points was leaked to the media; the U.S. and Iran are scheduled to officially sign it today in Switzerland. The document lays the groundwork for 60 days of negotiations towards a final agreement and for the first time gives the market a glimpse of the real commitments from both sides, rather than just rhetoric.
Here are the main points and the essence of the memorandum:
War Ceases Immediately — on all fronts, including Lebanon. Neither the U.S. nor Iran will attack each other anymore. It is very unlikely that Israel will agree to this.
The Strait of Hormuz Opens Within 30 Days — Iran commits to restoring pre-war shipping volumes, demining the strait, and removing technical obstacles. The U.S. will lift the naval blockade immediately after signing. There are no questions here.
Iran Freezes its Nuclear Program at Status Quo — no new enrichment occurs during negotiations. The fate of already enriched uranium will be determined in the final agreement. Iran reaffirms that it will never produce nuclear weapons.
The U.S. Immediately Permits Exports of Iranian Oil — sanctions on oil, petrochemicals, and related services (banks, insurance, transportation) will be suspended before their official repeal.
Frozen Iranian Assets Are Unblocked — the U.S. commits to issuing all necessary permits, and funds will be made available to the Central Bank of Iran.
The U.S. and Allies Commit to Allocating at Least $300 Billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran — a mechanism will be developed within 60 days.
All Sanctions Against Iran Will Be Lifted — including UN and IAEA resolutions and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary — on an agreed schedule.
A Compliance Monitoring Mechanism Is Established for the implementation of the final agreement. The final document will be enshrined in a binding UN Security Council resolution.
It is worth noting several key aspects that the market will evaluate particularly closely. The point about $300 billion is a colossal sum, comparable to Iran's annual GDP, and its realization will require the approval of the U.S. Congress, which in itself is a serious political test. The point about the lifting of UN sanctions is also complex: its implementation requires the consent of the Security Council, in which Russia and China hold veto power. Finally, the nuclear issue in the document is vaguely formulated—the "status quo" does not imply the dismantling of centrifuges or the transportation of uranium, which is already drawing criticism from Israel and American hawks.
For the markets, the document is undoubtedly a positive signal. Oil is already trading below $83, and if the signing proceeds without surprises, the next target may be the range of $75–78, which many market participants are aiming for. A decrease in oil prices directly affects inflation forecasts for the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England.
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