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Gold (XAU/USD) continues to hold near the key support level of $4,300 and is trading cautiously as market participants await the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate decision. At the same time, expectations of a temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran have reduced demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, which is generally supporting the precious metals market. Nevertheless, gold remains below Monday's weekly high and below the technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting that bullish investors should remain cautious.
US President Donald Trump stated that the document would formalize Tehran's commitment to refrain from acquiring nuclear weapons, while Iranian state media maintain that detailed discussions regarding nuclear issues have not yet begun. Reports have also emerged regarding the possible creation of a $300 billion private investment fund to support Iran's economy, although Trump has dismissed these claims as inaccurate. This uncertainty is keeping investors cautious and limiting aggressive selling of the US dollar ahead of the central bank's key policy decision.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision later today, with the consensus forecast pointing to no change in rates. Moreover, policymakers are likely to refrain from signaling policy easing amid inflation that has remained more resilient than expected. Market attention will focus on updated macroeconomic projections, including the Fed's dot plot. In addition, investors will closely analyze comments from the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, during the post-meeting press conference for clues regarding the future direction of monetary policy.
Meanwhile, market expectations have partially adjusted away from the most pessimistic inflation scenarios and the strongly hawkish Federal Reserve outlook that emerged during the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran. However, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is still estimated at approximately 60%. Therefore, a more dovish message from the Federal Reserve may be required for the US dollar to come under renewed pressure and for gold to extend its recovery from the year-to-date lows reached last week.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is trading near the $4,350 level. A break above this level would be an important step for bulls, but a sustained move above the 200-day SMA would be needed to confirm a stronger bullish outlook. However, as oscillators remain in negative territory, bears continue to hold the advantage. Initial support is located at $4,300, followed by $4,260. A break below these levels could pave the way for a decline toward the June low.
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