23.06.202600:17 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. From Washington to Burgenstock: Geopolitics Sets the Tone for Trading

The euro-dollar pair was trading on Monday near Friday's closing, in the mid-14 range. Recent geopolitical events have not inspired EUR/USD buyers to move towards the 15 range, nor have they allowed sellers to return to last week's price lows.

Geopolitics remains at the forefront of EUR/USD traders' attention. One could say that market participants exhibit cautious optimism regarding the initial outcomes of the negotiations, but also maintain a "healthy skepticism" about the prospects for a full-fledged deal.

However, there is a clear dominance of positive signals over negative ones on Monday. Therefore, I believe the market is currently overly conservative in its assessments of ongoing events. Consequently, EUR/USD buyers have not yet been able to realize the "accumulated potential" that, under a more favorable interpretation of the news backdrop, could have already pushed the pair to higher price levels, at least into the area of the 15 range.

According to Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, the talks in Burgenstock "demonstrated encouraging progress." He specified that the parties agreed on a roadmap to reach a final agreement within the next 60 days and to establish a high-level committee for political oversight. As the Prime Minister noted, "discussions took place in a positive and constructive atmosphere and yielded encouraging results."

Meanwhile, Iran's Minister of Economy, Seyed Ali Madanizadeh, announced that the process of unfreezing Iranian assets began on Monday. He stated that the central bank started implementing "necessary measures to unfreeze Iran's blocked foreign reserves."

Finally, U.S. Vice President JD Vance remarked that talks was "very, very successful," as the parties made significant progress in negotiations. According to him, Iran specifically agreed to allow UN and IAEA inspectors into the country to monitor compliance with the agreements reached. Vance compared the deal to building a house, noting that although "the house is not built yet, a good foundation has already been laid."

In other words, despite the Iranian delegation leaving the summit in Burgenstock, the parties were still able to officially approve the roadmap. This is an important point for the next stage of the negotiation process—on Monday, negotiations at the working group level commenced in Switzerland (with the Iranian team led by a senior official—the Deputy Foreign Minister) to work out specific mechanisms for implementing the agreement.

So why do unsettling (more accurately, skeptical) sentiments persist in the market despite the overtly positive comments from the U.S., Pakistan, and Iran?

In my view, several fundamental factors need to be highlighted.

Firstly, serious disagreements regarding the nuclear program remain. The United States insists on the principle of "zero enrichment" and demands that Iran dismantle its centrifuges and impose a lengthy moratorium on further developments for up to 20 years. Tehran, for its part, refuses to set limitations for more than 10 years and states that it is not ready to take measures that it believes infringe on the country's right to develop a peaceful nuclear program.

Secondly, there is the "Israel factor." As is well known, Israel is not directly involved in the negotiation process, but the memorandum agreed upon between Washington and Tehran is based on the assumption that the U.S. can control Israel, and Iran can manage its proxy forces in the region. This is why many analysts consider this moment one of the main risks—even if final agreements are reached between Washington and Tehran, regional players not formally tied to the deal remain. Any military action from Israel or Iranian proxy forces could "nullify" the Swiss agreements.

Incidentally, parallel to the Swiss negotiations, talks between Israel and the official government of Lebanon are taking place in Washington under the "supervision" of Donald Trump. Preliminary data suggests that the sides have already agreed on "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon from which Israeli forces should withdraw and transfer control to the regular Lebanese army. However, whether these talks will be successful remains an open question.

Thus, EUR/USD traders are effectively taking a wait-and-see position amid the complex and multi-layered diplomatic process. The further movement of EUR/USD will largely depend on how successfully negotiations progress, not only in Burgenstock but also in Washington. Any progress in either direction could boost interest in risk assets and support the euro, while new diplomatic failures or spikes in regional tensions in the Middle East would once again drive demand for safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar.

The intrigue remains, so the balance of power could shift in either direction, despite positive signals currently outweighing negative ones. In such uncertainty, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach with the EUR/USD pair—at least until clearer signals emerge regarding the future of the negotiation process.