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Gold has declined, falling below $4,050 per ounce and marking a two-week low. Today, the metal briefly lost 0.6% after a 1.7% drop yesterday, but has since partially offset those losses.
The pressure comes from two fronts. The dollar has strengthened by 0.6% since the beginning of the week, which automatically makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for international buyers. Additionally, the sell-off in tech stocks is forcing investors to reduce their positions in the metal to cover losses in other sectors.
A paradox familiar during periods of market stress emerges here. Gold is known as a safe-haven asset; however, during major inter-market sell-offs, it often declines as a source of liquidity. When investors need cash to meet margin calls on declining tech stocks, they sell what has appreciated and can be easily converted, which makes gold a perfect candidate for this role. This is why yesterday's drop on Wall Street, driven by concerns that the AI rally had gone too far, also pulled down the precious metal.
To the liquidity factor, a fundamental one is added. Inflation risks continue to loom over gold, along with an increased probability that central banks will maintain high rates or raise them further. The tough rhetoric from the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, last week unsettled investors and neutralized the positive impact of the Iranian peace agreement. Notably, the President of the Chicago Fed, Goolsbee, openly stated that inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs have cut their gold forecasts, no longer factoring in a rate cut from the Fed this year.
Given the easing situation in the Middle East, the market is likely close to peaking amid its reassessment of tight monetary policy, but this does not mean a quick exit from the current range. For the hawkish trend to continue, U.S. data must keep surprising in a direction that favors rate hikes. This would mean that the price of gold will remain under pressure, as the metal's fate is currently dictated almost entirely by rate expectations rather than geopolitics.
That is why all market attention is focused on the upcoming PCE index release on Thursday. This is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, and its acceleration is anticipated. If the figure comes in above expectations, hawkish rates will be confirmed, the dollar will strengthen even further, and gold risks continuing its decline toward the psychological level of $4,000. Conversely, if the PCE surprises to the downside, the metal may get a breather and an opportunity to rebound.
Silver is faring slightly better today, adding 0.2% to $61.71, while platinum is declining, and palladium is virtually unchanged.
As for the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,124. This will allow targeting $4,186, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest goal will be around $4,249. In the event of a fall in gold, bears will attempt to take control of $4,062. If successful, a breakout of this range will deal a severe blow to the bulls and drive gold down to a low of $4,008, with the potential to reach $3,954.
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