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On Wednesday, the precious metals market is witnessing upward momentum in silver (XAG/USD), with prices rising to the round level of $61.00. The main driver of growth in the white metal has been the weakening of the U.S. dollar, driven by not-so-rosy macroeconomic data and comments from Federal Reserve representative Kevin Warsh.
During his speech at the European Central Bank summit in Sintra, Kevin Warsh outlined the Fed's position: it refuses to provide forward guidance and will move directly to making more measured policy decisions. An additional factor putting pressure on the dollar and supporting precious metals has been the noted decrease in inflation risks mentioned by the Fed representative.
In terms of macroeconomic data, the ADP employment report for the private sector indicated that 98,000 new jobs were created in June, which was below market forecasts (113,000) and the previous May figure (122,000). Following this, the ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 53.3 in June, down from 54 the previous month, missing analysts' expectations.
Now, to get better trading opportunities, the market is waiting for the release of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday. This indicator is expected to provide key signals about the future trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy.
Despite the current rally, interest rate expectations remain a key determinant of the dynamics of the precious metals market. Investors continue to price in a tightening of monetary policy, including the possibility of rate hikes this year. An increase in borrowing costs traditionally raises the transaction costs of holding non-interest-generating assets like silver, which can create constraints on its medium-term growth.
On the geopolitical front, there has been no significant progress in achieving a final peace settlement between the U.S. and Iran. Despite the presence of officials from both countries in Doha, direct negotiations are not currently scheduled, which, in turn, supports stable demand for precious metals as traditional safe-haven assets.
From a technical perspective, during the recovery, silver faced resistance at the round level of $61.00, where the 9-day EMA is located. Oscillators are negative, and the relative strength index has exited the oversold zone, indicating increased selling pressure. For bulls to gain their first chance for growth, they need to overcome the 20-day SMA. If silver cannot hold the $55.40 level, it will be subject to a deeper decline.
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