Ważne do 03:00 2026-07-08 UTC--4
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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro Currency
The price test at 1.1428 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.
Yesterday's U.S. data disappointed market participants, leading to a weakening of the dollar against the euro. The ISM Services PMI fell to 54. This indicator is based on surveys of companies on new orders, employment, and price pressures, and any deviation from forecasts typically reshapes expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate decisions. Although the indicator remains above the 50-point mark, the slowdown in service growth was viewed as a sign of economic cooling, which in turn weakened the dollar's position in the second half of the day.
Today, during European trading, data is expected on changes in Germany's industrial production and France's trade balance. Even if the data comes in slightly better or worse than forecasts, it is unlikely to have a strong impact on the euro's exchange rate. The market has largely priced in standard expectations regarding the state of the Eurozone economy. In the absence of new shock news or changes in the European Central Bank's monetary policy, the pair is likely to continue consolidating.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Scenarios
- Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the euro today when the price reaches around 1.1440 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1460. At 1.1460, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can only expect the euro to rise after strong Eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its rise from it.
- Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1429 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. You can expect growth towards opposing levels of 1.1440 and 1.1460.
Sell Scenarios
- Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro today after reaching the level of 1.1425 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1405, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair today will return only in the case of poor data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
- Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1440 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. You can expect a decrease towards opposing levels of 1.1425 and 1.1405.
What the Chart Shows:
- The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
- The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
- The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
- The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
- The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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