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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair declined to the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1409, rebounded from it, and began a new move toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1514. Consolidation below the 1.1409 level would favor the U.S. dollar and open the way for a moderate decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1290. However, trading activity has remained extremely subdued over the past two weeks, and the 1.1409 level has not been a reliable source of trading signals.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the most recent upward wave has not yet exceeded the previous high and continues to develop. The geopolitical backdrop has improved significantly in recent weeks, as military operations in the Middle East have at least been suspended, and Iran and the United States have signed some form of agreement. It will be possible to conclude that the bearish trend has ended only after the pair breaks above the 1.1620 peak or after two consecutive bullish waves have formed.
The news background on Monday was relatively light. The eurozone first released its Construction PMI, followed later by retail sales and producer price data. None of these reports triggered any market reaction, although it is worth noting that producer prices in Europe continue to rise faster than the market had expected. Traders' attention then shifted to the U.S. ISM Services PMI. This is an important indicator that, unlike the European PMIs, is published only once a month. However, its reading matched market expectations exactly, leaving traders disappointed once again. As a result, there was virtually no meaningful market movement throughout the day. Toward the end of the session, the bulls attempted a modest advance, but it had no meaningful impact on the overall market picture. Tuesday began with a decline in the pair, but the movement has been so weak that it is too early to conclude that a new bearish move has begun.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1411, allowing traders to expect a continued rise toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1514. A renewed consolidation below 1.1411 would increase the likelihood of a decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1291. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator. The descending trend channel remains valid.
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 11,674 long positions and opened 17,385 short positions. Over the seven weeks of February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared because of the war involving Iran. Over the past fourteen weeks, however, market positioning has become balanced following the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East. Speculators currently hold approximately 235,000 long positions and 235,000 short positions.
Overall, major market participants continue to maintain a favorable long-term outlook for the euro. Naturally, the numerous global events that have emerged in recent years continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market remains focused on developments in the Middle East, where military operations have been paused and negotiations have begun that could eventually lead to a lasting peace. However, the market is still largely ignoring the improvement in the geopolitical environment, along with many other factors that support the euro.
The economic calendar for July 7 contains two scheduled events, neither of which is considered significant. Therefore, the impact of the economic news flow on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be minimal or nonexistent.
Long positions became possible after the pair consolidated above 1.1409 on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1514. Those positions may still be held today. Short positions may be considered if the pair consolidates below 1.1409 on the hourly chart, with a downward target at 1.1290.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.
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