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The GBP/USD pair moved lower on Tuesday but remained within a local uptrend. This trend may be a correction against the two-month downward trend, but the British pound has appreciated more strongly than the euro in recent weeks. Unfortunately, this fact holds little significance, as if the euro starts to decline again, the pound is likely to fall as well. There are no macroeconomic reports or fundamental events scheduled for the UK this week. The most important reports have either already been released or will be out soon. However, there are currently no questions regarding the British economy or the Bank of England's monetary policy. The BoE has clearly indicated its intention to maintain the key rate at its current level while anticipating a drop in inflation. Consequently, the problem for the British currency lies in the market's refusal to analyze all the facts and factors logically. Geopolitical and monetary policy factors from the Federal Reserve could begin to pull the pound lower again, even as market sentiment ignores factors that favor the British currency.
In the 5-minute timeframe, only one sell signal was generated around 10 AM. The movements throughout the day were that weak. Ultimately, the pair consolidated below the 1.3380-1.3386 area, allowing novice traders to open short positions. As of Wednesday morning, these trades are in profit of about 20 pips. Currently, no significant profits can be expected.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, which is currently corrective in nature but could evolve into a full trend if the market begins to pay attention to all factors. The conflict in the Middle East is either not fully resolved or on pause, and the Fed has only signaled a possible rate hike by the end of the year, which might not happen. We believe the dollar now lacks grounds for growth—neither fundamentally nor geopolitically. However, the market operates on its own logic.
On Wednesday, novice traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3319-1.3331 area, targeting 1.3259-1.3267. A bounce from the area of 1.3319-1.3331 allows for opening long positions targeting 1.3380-1.3386.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently take place at the following levels: 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Wednesday, there are no significant events scheduled in the UK, while the U.S. will publish the minutes from the June Fed meeting, which we consider a secondary event.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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