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The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave has not yet exceeded the previous peak and is still developing. The geopolitical backdrop has improved considerably in recent weeks, as the conflict in the Middle East has at least paused and Iran and the United States have signed an agreement of some kind. It will be possible to conclude that the bearish trend has ended only after a break above the 1.1620 peak or after the formation of two consecutive bullish waves.
The news backdrop on Tuesday was extremely light. Traders showed no interest in Germany's inflation data or the U.S. ADP employment report, as both releases were considered of secondary importance. For several weeks, bulls have continued to push higher, but their efforts have remained weak, while bears have largely stayed on the sidelines. This evening, the minutes of the June FOMC meeting will be released, but this event may meet the same fate as the other events this week. It is worth remembering that the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are simply a document containing various details of the committee's discussions, most of which are usually of little significance. They may provide insight into the views of the majority of policymakers, but such information is useful only if the market does not already know what those views are. However, we already know that FOMC members adopted a more hawkish stance in June, which was a natural response to the rise in U.S. inflation to 4.2%. While the March dot plot suggested that most FOMC members expected one interest rate cut before the end of the year, they are now allowing for at least one monetary policy tightening.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1411, allowing traders to expect a continuation of the euro's advance toward the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1514. A renewed consolidation below 1.1411 would favor a resumption of the decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1291. No developing divergences are currently observed on any indicator. The descending trend channel remains valid.
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 11,674 Long positions and opened 17,385 Short positions. Over the seven weeks spanning February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the conflict involving Iran, while over the past fourteen weeks the balance has largely been restored following the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East. The total number of Long contracts held by speculative traders now stands at 235,000, matching the 235,000 Short positions.
Overall, large market participants continue to view the euro favorably over the long term. Naturally, the many global developments seen in recent years continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market remains focused on the situation in the Middle East, where military operations have been suspended and negotiations have begun that could eventually lead to a lasting peace. However, the market continues to largely ignore the improvement in the geopolitical environment, as well as many other factors that support the euro.
United States
The economic calendar for July 8 contains only one event, which I consider largely procedural rather than significant. Therefore, the impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Wednesday is once again expected to be minimal or nonexistent.
Long positions became possible after consolidation above 1.1409 on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1514. These positions may continue to be held today. Short positions may be considered after consolidation below 1.1409 on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1290.
Fibonacci retracement grids are plotted from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.
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