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As of the time of writing this article on Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was trading around $73.80 per barrel, up 1.50% for the day. This increase is the result of the re-evaluation of risks to global energy supplies against the backdrop of worsening geopolitical conditions in the Middle East.
The oil market is receiving support from statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, who confirmed the end of the memorandum of understanding with Iran, designed to reduce conflicts in the region. Speaking at a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit, Trump expressed his unwillingness to continue negotiations with Iran following recent attacks on commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Tensions in the region have escalated after U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed strikes against Iranian military infrastructure in response to attacks on several commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This key maritime route is a vital artery through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply flows, raising concerns about potential disruptions to energy flows.
Analysts at ING emphasize that the rise in oil prices is linked to escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and the U.S. decision to revoke temporary licensing allowing certain sales of Iranian oil. The bank's report indicates that this measure increases the risk of disrupting negotiations between Washington and Tehran, while the reduction of oil and petroleum product inventories in the U.S., coupled with new attacks on Russian oil refineries, also serves as catalysts for rising oil prices.
Meanwhile, BNY experts point to growing instability in financial markets, as hopes for a swift restoration of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually fade. The bank highlighted that while oil prices have already reacted sharply to the latest escalation, future market developments will determine whether the current conflict deepens into a more prolonged geopolitical crisis that could cause significant market upheaval.
From a technical perspective, oil has surpassed the 200-day and 20-day SMAs, providing bulls with opportunities for further growth. However, oscillators on the daily chart have yet to enter positive territory, confirming the market's bearish advantage. On the 4-hour chart, oscillators are positive, and the relative strength index is in the oversold zone, indicating consolidation. At the same time, a breakout above the 100-day SMA on this timeframe will favor the bulls.
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