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The Mean Reversion strategy did not generate any valid signals for the euro or the British pound today. The Canadian dollar was traded using the Momentum strategy.
With no eurozone economic data released, the euro gained only slightly against the dollar today, while market conditions remained rather tense. Since the single currency lacked its own drivers, its direction was determined by external factors, which continued to be dominated by geopolitical developments. The situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran continued to weigh on risk assets. As one of these assets, the euro remained under pressure, which limited its recovery to modest levels. Persistent tensions in the Middle East are likely to sustain demand for the safe-haven dollar, limiting the euro's recovery potential.
During the second half of the day, the balance of power in the market may change significantly, as a series of important events from the United States is scheduled. The main focus will be on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI excluding food and energy, as well as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's semiannual testimony before Congress. The Consumer Price Index reflects the pace of inflation and directly influences interest rate expectations, while the core indicator is considered a more reliable benchmark because it excludes volatile components. The stronger the figures are, the stronger the argument in favor of a more restrictive Fed policy and the greater the support for the U.S. dollar.
For the euro and the pound, these releases present a direct risk. Strong inflation combined with a hawkish tone from Warsh could strengthen the dollar and pressure EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower, while slowing price growth and cautious remarks from the Fed Chair would give both European currencies an opportunity to recover. Before the data is released, the pairs are likely to trade cautiously, but a sharp increase in volatility is possible during the second half of the day.
If the economic data comes in strong, the Momentum strategy will be prioritized. If the market does not react to the data, the Mean Reversion strategy will continue to be used.
Mean Reversion Strategy (Return to Level) for the Second Half of the Day:
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